| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 14.0 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 14.1 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 14.2 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 14.3 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 14.4 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 14.6 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 14.8 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15.0 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15.2 million sq km | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will correspond to the Arctic sea ice maximum extent this winter, letting traders express bets on how large the winter peak will be relative to the contract’s defined buckets. The result is a real‑time aggregation of expectations that can signal how forecasters and participants view seasonal climate conditions.
Arctic sea ice exhibits a long‑term downward trend driven by anthropogenic warming, but year‑to‑year variability remains large because of changing weather patterns, ocean heat, and ice thickness. Observations and reanalyses from research agencies and satellite missions provide the datasets that markets and forecasters use to track maxima and minima each year.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation for outcomes given the contract’s settlement terms and the authoritative dataset specified on the platform; they update as new model forecasts and observations arrive. To interpret prices correctly, first confirm which dataset and measurement window the contract uses, then consider how recent forecasts and physical drivers might shift expectations.
The contract’s settlement terms specify the authoritative dataset and exact measurement definition (for example, which satellite product and whether daily or monthly averaging is used); check the exchange’s event page or contract text to see the named source and resolution rules.
The Arctic winter maximum usually occurs in late winter to early spring, though the precise day used for settlement depends on the contract’s measurement window; confirm the contract’s date or averaging period because timing determines which observations count toward the settled maximum.
The nine outcomes partition possible maximum‑extent values into mutually exclusive buckets defined in the contract; those buckets correspond to ranges of extent in the chosen dataset, so review the event page to see the exact boundaries before trading.
Common authoritative providers include national and international climate centers and polar research groups that publish satellite‑derived sea ice products; the contract names the specific provider used for settlement, which could be one of those charting sea ice extent.
Short‑term forecasts (temperature, wind, storms) can change expectations for freeze‑up, while seasonal model outlooks and ocean heat anomalies inform traders about likely trajectories; as those forecasts shift, market prices typically adjust to reflect updated expectations before the contract settles.