| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the Federal Reserve will set the policy rate at its April 2026 meeting and how many FOMC members will formally record dissents. The combination matters because both the decision and the vote split convey the Fed’s policy direction and internal consensus to markets and the public.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on a scheduled cadence to set the federal funds rate and issues a policy statement and vote tally at the conclusion of the meeting. Markets and economists watch these April meetings for guidance on the path of monetary policy, and recorded dissents are taken as a signal about disagreement among voting members on the Committee’s stance. Historical patterns show that both the direction of rate moves and the number of dissents can influence forward interest-rate expectations and financial conditions.
Prices in this prediction market aggregate participants’ views about the April 2026 FOMC decision and vote tally and update as new data and Fed communications arrive. Use market prices as a real-time indicator of perceived probabilities rather than as definitive predictions — they can shift rapidly as information changes.
Resolution will be based on the official FOMC statement and the formal recorded vote tally published for the April 2026 meeting; the market uses those official sources as the basis for settling the combined rate outcome and number of dissents.
A dissent is any formal recorded vote by an FOMC voting member that differs from the Committee’s action as shown in the official meeting record or vote tally published for the April 2026 meeting.
The dissent count reflects the set of FOMC voting members at the April 2026 meeting — typically the Board governors plus the rotating Reserve Bank presidents who hold voting rights at that meeting — as listed in the official meeting materials.
Zero or low reported volume indicates limited trading activity to date and may signal lower liquidity and wider bid-ask spreads; that makes market prices more sensitive to individual trades and news ahead of the April meeting.
Key items include monthly inflation releases (CPI and PCE), the monthly employment report, any interim GDP or activity updates, and scheduled speeches or testimony by Fed officials that could clarify the Committee’s current reaction function ahead of the April meeting.