| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.02999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.03 to 1.09 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.10 to 1.16 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.17 to 1.23 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.24 to 1.30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1.30001 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether April 2026 will register a temperature increase as defined by the market's outcome ranges. It matters because short-term monthly temperature outcomes reflect both long-term climate trends and near-term drivers that affect weather-sensitive sectors and policy signals.
The event sits against a backdrop of a multi-decadal warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions, overlaid by year-to-year variability from phenomena like ENSO, volcanic aerosol injections, and atmospheric circulation patterns. Monthly markets like this often attract attention from climate analysts, insurers, energy traders, and researchers because they combine a clear, time‑bounded observation with high-frequency public data releases.
Prediction market prices express the collective judgment about which outcome will occur given the market's exact settlement definition and data source. For this market, treat prices as evolving indicators that aggregate known physical drivers, observational schedules, and recent data revisions rather than fixed forecasts.
The market settles to the value reported by the authoritative dataset named in the market's rules; that dataset specifies whether the measure is a global or regional monthly mean, the baseline period, and any processing steps. Consult the market page for the precise settlement definition and data source.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive ranges defined in the market description (for example, discrete bins or thresholds). Review the market's outcome table on the event page to see the exact temperature bounds that correspond to each outcome.
The market close is listed as TBD; resolution timing depends on the named data provider's publication schedule—monthly temperature products are typically released within weeks of the month ending, and some providers post preliminary values followed by revisions. The market will resolve according to the publication and revision rules specified on the event page.
In recent decades April monthly means have generally trended upward relative to 20th‑century baselines, with variability from year to year driven by ENSO and weather patterns. Use the dataset named in the market rules to examine the historical distribution of April anomalies when forming views.
Settlement follows the revision policy specified in the market's rules: some markets use the first official release, others use a final revised value after a stated window. Check the event page for the exact revision and cutoff policy that governs resolution.