| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mary Peltola | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Click Bishop | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Edna DeVries | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bernadette Wilson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dave Bronson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shelley Hughes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Heilala | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matthew Claman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Adam Crum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Treg Taylor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named person will be the certified winner of the Alaska gubernatorial election referenced by the listing. It matters because governorship outcomes determine state policy on resource development, budgets, and relations with federal authorities.
Alaska holds gubernatorial elections on a four-year cycle and, since a 2020 ballot measure, uses a top-four primary followed by a ranked-choice general election for statewide offices. The state's economy is heavily influenced by energy and federal funding, and Alaska Native constituencies and rural turnout patterns are often decisive. Historical winners and incumbency dynamics shape expectations but outcomes can be altered by multi-candidate fields and ranked-choice transfers.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about which named person will be certified as governor; they are dynamic and incorporate new information as it appears. Use them as a real-time signal of changing conditions rather than a fixed forecast.
It will resolve to the individual who is officially declared and certified as the winner of the Alaska gubernatorial election described in the market, according to the election authorities and the market's resolution rules.
This market lists 13 outcomes; each outcome corresponds to a specific named person included in the market and will pay out if that person is the certified winner for the referenced election.
The event close time is listed as TBD; resolution typically occurs after official vote counting and certification by Alaska election authorities, and the platform will follow its stated resolution policy once certification is final.
Ranked-choice voting can produce winners who accumulate support through second- and third-choice transfers, so a candidate who is not first in early counts can still win after redistribution of votes from eliminated candidates.
Watch Alaska-specific polling, primary and early voting returns, official ballot transfer/rank tabulation updates, major endorsements, campaign fundraising reports, and certification notices from the Alaska Division of Elections.