| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 87,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 81,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 84,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 79,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 77,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 78,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether one or more job losses will be publicly reported as being linked to artificial intelligence on Friday, Mar 20. It matters because such reports can affect expectations about labor markets, corporate strategy, and public debate over AI's economic impacts.
Debate over AI-driven displacement has accelerated as firms deploy automation and generative AI at scale; recent quarters have seen both targeted technology-driven reductions and broader cost-cutting layoffs. Attribution is often contested—companies, regulators, and journalists may describe the same event differently—so markets track not just the occurrence of layoffs but whether they are publicly framed as AI-linked.
Market prices aggregate participants' information and judgments about which outcome will be reported on that date; they update as new announcements, reports, or clarifications arrive. Use them as a real-time signal of collective expectations, not as definitive measurements of causal relationships.
The contract resolves according to the event definitions and permissible sources listed in Kalshi’s contract text; typically this means job losses that are publicly reported on that date and explicitly attributed to AI, automation, or machine learning in company statements, regulatory filings, or reputable news reports. Casual or speculative attributions by social media alone are generally not authoritative unless corroborated by the contract’s listed sources.
The market uses the date and time conventions specified in the contract; participants should consult the contract header for the governing time zone and any precise cut-off times because those details determine whether a published announcement counts for Mar 20.
Each outcome corresponds to the mutually exclusive categories or thresholds defined in the contract (for example, ranges or specific statements); the market will be resolved to the single outcome that matches the verified public reporting on the relevant date according to the contract’s resolution rules and source list.
Resolution typically relies on the set of authoritative sources enumerated in the contract—commonly company press releases, regulatory filings (e.g., SEC), and established national or industry news outlets. The contract specifies which outlets and document types are acceptable for verification.
The contract’s adjudication rules govern late information: announcements timestamped within the contract’s designated window that meet source criteria usually count, while subsequent corrections or retractions are considered according to the contract’s dispute and resolution procedures. Check the contract for any stated waiting or appeal periods.