| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which ADP private‑sector employment change will be reported for November 2026; the ADP release is closely watched as an early private payroll indicator that can influence market expectations and policy debates.
The ADP National Employment Report is produced monthly from ADP payroll processing data and typically reports private‑sector job changes shortly before the government’s BLS payroll numbers. ADP uses a different sample and methodology than the BLS, so its reading is an independent snapshot that can confirm or diverge from other labor indicators. For this market, the official ADP Nov 2026 press release is the authoritative settlement source—check the market rules for exact handling.
Prediction market prices represent traders’ collective assessment of which outcome will match the official ADP Nov 2026 release; they are useful as a real‑time consensus signal but are not guarantees of the final number.
The market's official close time is listed as TBD on the market page; settlement will follow the market’s rules and typically use ADP’s official press release for the November 2026 report as the authoritative source—confirm exact close and settlement timing on the Kalshi market details.
ADP measures changes in private‑sector payrolls from ADP’s payroll processing data and excludes government jobs, while the BLS covers total nonfarm employment with different survey methods and seasonal adjustments; the two series can diverge in level and month‑to‑month direction because of sampling and methodological differences.
November often shows seasonal volatility because of holiday hiring and payroll timing; ADP numbers can also be revised or later benchmarked, so traders should account for typical seasonal effects and the potential for revisions when forming positions.
Major influences include surprises in GDP or CPI data, large corporate hiring or layoff announcements, significant Fed policy moves or guidance, and sudden shocks such as natural disasters or geopolitical escalation that alter business hiring plans.
Low volume implies limited liquidity, so individual orders can move prices more and spreads may be wider; seven discrete outcomes create coarse resolution brackets, meaning small differences in the ADP release can flip which outcome wins—trade size and risk management should account for slippage and discrete outcome boundaries.