| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi event asks how many private-sector jobs the ADP National Employment Report will report for May 2026. It matters because the ADP release is a widely watched, high-frequency indicator of private payroll trends that can move markets and inform expectations for the official government payrolls report.
The ADP National Employment Report is produced monthly by ADP in partnership with Moody's Analytics and covers changes in private nonfarm payroll employment. Traders and economists use it as an early read on the labor market ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payrolls release; while ADP and BLS use different sources and methods and do not always align, ADP often influences short-term market positioning.
Prediction market prices reflect the aggregate view of traders about which outcome will occur and update continuously as new information arrives. Use prices as a real-time indicator of market consensus, not as a definitive prediction—markets incorporate news, data, and sentiment that may change rapidly.
The event measures the change in private-sector nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 as reported in the ADP National Employment Report; each outcome corresponds to a specific numeric range published in the market contract.
ADP typically publishes its monthly national employment report in the early June window for May data, usually on a weekday morning; consult ADP's official release calendar or the event page for the exact release timestamp for this contract.
Each outcome represents a predefined range of the ADP-reported change in private payrolls for May 2026; the event page lists the numeric boundaries for each outcome—match the ADP headline figure to the range to see which outcome settles.
Monitor weekly initial jobless claims, major sector surveys (manufacturing/services PMIs), large employer announcements, recent ISM/monthly activity reports, and any Fed commentary or unexpected macro news that could alter hiring expectations ahead of the ADP print.
ADP and BLS use different data sources and methodologies, so discrepancies can occur; this contract settles on the ADP figure only, so traders should focus on the ADP methodology and revisions when assessing outcomes rather than the later BLS number.