| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how many private-sector jobs ADP will report for March 2026; it matters because ADP is a widely watched early indicator of monthly U.S. payroll trends, influencing markets and policy expectations.
The ADP National Employment Report estimates private payroll changes using payroll processing data and is released before the government’s nonfarm payrolls figure. Historically it moves markets as an early signal, but its methodology and coverage differ from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report, so outcomes can diverge.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations about ADP’s March 2026 private payroll change and update as new information arrives; they are best read as a consensus sentiment indicator, not a precise forecast.
They represent mutually exclusive buckets for ADP’s reported private-sector employment change in March 2026; each outcome corresponds to a specific range or category defined on the event page.
The market’s close time is set by the platform and listed on the event page; markets of this type typically close before or at the official ADP release time, so check the event page for the exact deadline.
ADP measures private payrolls using payroll processing data and excludes government jobs, while the BLS total nonfarm payrolls include both private and public sectors and use a different survey methodology; they can move together but often differ in magnitude and timing.
Watch weekly jobless claims, company hiring announcements and layoff reports, JOLTS and other labor surveys, sector-specific employment reports, and any Federal Reserve communications that could influence hiring sentiment.
Lower absolute volume typically means thinner liquidity and wider price swings, so prices may be more sensitive to individual trades; interpret outcomes as indicative of sentiment but consider market depth and check for any sudden order flow that could skew prices.