| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many private-sector jobs the ADP National Employment Report will show for July 2026; the outcome matters because the ADP reading is a widely watched early signal of monthly private payroll trends. Market prices aggregate trader expectations about that single monthly data point.
ADP's private payroll estimate is produced from payroll processing data and often moves markets ahead of the official BLS nonfarm payrolls report. Historical differences between ADP and the BLS mean traders consider both the ADP headline and its recent track record when forming expectations for July 2026.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of traders about which outcome bin is most likely given available information; they update as new economic releases, corporate news, or revisions arrive. Use odds as a real-time summary of market sentiment, not a deterministic forecast.
The platform sets the market close once the ADP publication schedule is confirmed; monitor the market page for automated updates and check the exchange's rules for last-trade cutoff and settlement procedures.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive range of reported private-sector job changes for July 2026; the exact numeric boundaries for each bin are specified on the market page and determine settlement once ADP publishes its headline number.
Settlement will use the official ADP National Employment Report headline for July 2026 as published by ADP on its release date; consult the exchange's settlement rules for how they handle revisions or corrigenda.
Compare recent ADP readings to corresponding BLS nonfarm payroll prints and their revisions to gauge typical divergence and volatility; recent momentum, persistent gaps between the series, and the magnitude of prior revisions are all informative for forming expectations.
Key movers include monthly inflation reports, the monthly BLS unemployment and payroll indicators, weekly initial jobless claims, major corporate earnings or layoff announcements, and central bank communications that affect hiring sentiment.