| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 25000 | 71% | 71¢ | 74¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Above 50000 | 33% | 31¢ | 33¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 91% | 90¢ | 96¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above 75000 | 8% | 6¢ | 13¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Above -25000 | 96% | 93¢ | 100¢ | — | $133 | Trade → |
| Above 125000 | 6% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
| Above 100000 | 1% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $54 | Trade → |
This market asks how many private-sector jobs ADP will report changed in February 2026; the ADP release is watched by traders and economists as an early private-sector payroll indicator that can influence market expectations and policy discussion.
ADP publishes a monthly private payroll estimate derived from payroll-processing data that often arrives shortly before the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls. Because ADP covers only private payrolls and uses different methodology and seasonal adjustments than the BLS, its headline number frequently differs from the official government report. For February readings, seasonal patterns, tax‑season hiring, and any early-year corporate actions tend to be especially relevant.
Market prices across the seven outcomes represent traders' collective views about which outcome range is most likely and how much uncertainty there is; use those prices as a real‑time sentiment signal rather than a guarantee of the eventual published ADP figure.
The market close is listed on the Kalshi platform and is currently TBD; check the market page for the official deadline. ADP typically releases its monthly private‑payroll report in early March for February data, usually shortly before the official BLS nonfarm payrolls, but exact release timing is announced by ADP.
ADP measures private‑sector payroll changes using payroll‑processing data, while the BLS nonfarm payrolls cover both private and government payrolls and use a different survey methodology and seasonal adjustments. Expect routine divergence driven by coverage, timing, and methodological differences.
Announcements of large hiring drives or mass layoffs, major corporate earnings reports with hiring guidance, notable shifts in GDP or business‑activity indicators, changes in monetary‑policy expectations, and acute shocks (weather, strikes) are the kinds of events that can move expectations for the ADP February reading.
Treat weekly claims, JOLTS, and private surveys as real‑time inputs: they can signal evolving labor demand but do not map one‑to‑one onto ADP’s payroll‑processing measure. Use them to update directional expectations and uncertainty, while recognizing differences in coverage and timing.
ADP typically publishes industry breakdowns and methodological notes alongside the headline release; those details can change interpretations of the headline number. Subsequent methodological revisions are less common but can occur, so traders often watch both the headline and the sector detail for a fuller picture.