| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many payroll jobs the ADP monthly report will show for August 2026; its result is watched as an early private-sector indicator of U.S. labor-market momentum and can influence markets that respond to employment data.
ADP Research Institute publishes a monthly private-payrolls estimate based on payroll processor data; it is distinct from the BLS nonfarm payrolls in methodology, coverage, and seasonal treatment. Traders and economists use ADP as a near-term signal of hiring trends, but differences with official BLS data mean the two series can diverge month to month.
Market odds express the collective expectations of traders about which outcome interval will contain ADP's published August 2026 number; interpret changes in odds as shifting market sentiment driven by new data, headlines, and trading flows rather than as definitive forecasts.
ADP generally releases its monthly private-payrolls report in the same week as the BLS employment report—often a couple of days earlier—but schedules can vary. Because this Kalshi market's close is listed as TBD, monitor the Kalshi contract page for the official market close time and watch the ADP press schedule so you can time trades around the publication.
The seven outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive numeric intervals tied to ADP’s published payroll-change figure; the market settles to the interval that contains the official ADP August 2026 number. Check the contract description on Kalshi for the precise numeric boundaries and the settlement definition used by this market.
Relatively low traded volume implies thinner liquidity and greater price sensitivity to individual trades, which can produce larger swings and wider effective costs to enter or exit positions. Traders should factor in potential slippage and the possibility that liquidity may concentrate closer to the release when deciding trade size and timing.
Settlement follows the rules stated in the Kalshi contract: it will use the ADP figure specified in the contract’s settlement language (for example, the initial published ADP report or a designated final release). Always read the market’s settlement rules to see which ADP release controls settlement in the event of revisions.
ADP and BLS measure employment differently and can diverge due to coverage and methodology, but they often move in the same direction over time. Use ADP as an early private-sector signal while keeping in mind that the BLS release covers a broader scope and uses different seasonal adjustments; treat the ADP print and the later BLS print as complementary information rather than identical forecasts.