| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of seven outcome ranges will contain ADP's reported private‑sector employment change for April 2026. It matters because ADP's report is a widely watched early indicator of U.S. labor‑market momentum and can influence markets and policy expectations.
The ADP National Employment Report is compiled from ADP payroll processing data and is published monthly as a private‑sector payroll estimate. Traders and analysts use it as a lead indicator ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls, though the two measures use different samples and methodologies and often diverge in individual months. April readings can be affected by seasonal adjustments, tax‑season hiring patterns, and any major economic developments in the weeks before publication.
Market prices and odds on this page represent collective expectations about which outcome range ADP's April 2026 print will fall into; they update as new information arrives and should be treated as dynamic signals rather than fixed forecasts.
ADP typically publishes its National Employment Report in early May for the prior month, often on the Wednesday before the government's monthly payrolls report; this market is expected to close before the official ADP publication. Check the event page or market rules for the exact closing time to confirm.
Each of the seven outcomes corresponds to a distinct, mutually exclusive range of ADP's reported private‑sector job change for April 2026; only the outcome whose range contains the official ADP number will settle as the winner.
Low volume indicates limited liquidity, so prices may be more sensitive to small trades or news shocks and spreads may be wider; that makes execution and price signals less robust compared with heavily traded markets.
ADP is derived from private payroll processing records and covers private‑sector employment, while BLS nonfarm payrolls use establishment surveys and include public sector jobs; this market settles specifically on ADP's published private‑sector employment change for April 2026 as specified in the market's settlement source.
Settlement follows the official interpretation in the market rules and the ADP publication identified as the settlement source—typically the ADP value as published on its official release for April 2026. Consult the market's settlement provisions to see how later revisions, if any, are treated.