| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor Party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Liberal Party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| National Party | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Greens | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| One Nation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rebecca Scriven | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michelle Milthorpe | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Helen Dalton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will win the 2026 Farrer by-election, a contest that will decide who represents the Farrer electorate in the federal parliament. By-elections can change local representation and signal public sentiment toward the major parties between general elections.
Farrer is a rural New South Wales electorate with an economy focused on agriculture and regional services; historically it has been contested mainly by centre-right and centre-left parties as well as local independents and minor parties. By-elections in regional seats are often influenced by local issues (water, drought relief, agricultural policy), candidate profiles, and how well parties organise preferences and ground campaigns. The reason for the by-election and timing can also shape turnout and strategic voting.
Market prices reflect the collective judgement of traders about which candidate will be officially declared the winner and update as campaign news, polling, and preference deals emerge. Interpret the market as a continuously updating indicator of perceived likelihood, not a fixed prediction; large new information or official announcements can change prices quickly.
The market will settle on the candidate who is officially declared elected by the relevant electoral authority (the Australian Electoral Commission) after the official count and any required preference distributions are completed.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a specific candidate (or candidate label) nominated in this by-election; buying an outcome is a bet that that named candidate will be the one declared elected.
Australia’s preferential counting means initial first-preference leads can change as lower-polling candidates are excluded and preferences redistributed; the market outcome depends on the final official result after all preference distributions are applied.
Key movers include candidate nominations or withdrawals, high-profile endorsements, official polling releases focused on Farrer, vote-count updates on election night, publicised preference deals, and notable local or national policy announcements affecting the electorate.
The market’s close time is listed as TBD; trading typically pauses or ends shortly before official polls close or as determined by the platform, and settlement occurs after the electoral authority officially declares the winner and the market verifies that result.