| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $73.0 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $64K | Trade → |
| $72.00 to 72.99 | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| $71.00 to 71.99 | 37% | 30¢ | 38¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| $70.00 to 70.99 | 60% | 56¢ | 72¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| $69.00 to 69.99 | 3% | 3¢ | 11¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| $66.00 to 66.99 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| $67.00 to 67.99 | 1% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $68.00 to 68.99 | 1% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $59.99 or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $422 | Trade → |
| $61.00 to 61.99 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $63 | Trade → |
| $65.00 to 65.99 | 7% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $61 | Trade → |
| $60.00 to 60.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $62.00 to 62.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $64.00 to 64.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $63.00 to 63.99 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which WTI crude oil price bucket will prevail on March 2, 2026; it matters because short-term oil prices influence energy markets, inflation measures, and many trading and policy decisions. Market prices synthesize trader expectations about supply, demand, and near-term risks ahead of that date.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the US crude benchmark traded globally; its day-to-day price reflects a mix of physical supply/demand, inventory reports, refinery throughput, and macro factors. In the run-up to March 2, 2026, participants will weigh recent inventory releases, OPEC+ statements and compliance, US shale production trends, and global demand signals (notably industrial activity in major economies). Historical volatility around geopolitical events, seasonal refinery cycles, and macro announcements means outcomes can change quickly as new data arrives.
Market odds on this event represent the consensus view of which discrete price range will match the settlement reference on March 2, 2026; rising or falling prices in the market indicate shifting expectations, but you should always consult the market’s description for the precise settlement source and time when interpreting odds.
Settlement is based on the specific price source and timestamp defined on the Kalshi market page for this event (for example, a particular exchange's spot or front-month contract at a designated time). Check the market description on Kalshi to see the official settlement reference and observation time.
Each of the 15 outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive price interval or bucket covering the possible WTI price at the settlement time; the market page lists the exact boundaries for each outcome so you can see which range represents higher or lower price levels.
Data that affects demand or financial conditions—such as US inventory reports (EIA weekly data), major macro releases (employment, PMI, inflation), central bank communications, and large industry reports—can shift expectations in the days around Mar 2; the nearer they are to the settlement date, the larger their potential impact.
An OPEC+ agreement to cut or raise output, or clear signs of strong/weak compliance, changes immediate supply expectations; announced cuts tend to support higher settling price buckets, while production increases or breakdowns in coordination can pressure prices lower—effects depend on timing and market credibility of the action.
Spot oil prices can move rapidly on unexpected disruptions, and those moves will be captured if they occur before the market's official settlement timestamp; because settlement uses a defined observation time, whether the disruption alters the settled outcome depends on its timing, magnitude, and the market’s immediate reaction.