| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,800 to 6,824.9999 | 13% | 10¢ | 13¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 6,850 to 6,874.9999 | 18% | 6¢ | 17¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 6,549.9999 or below | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 16% | 8¢ | 15¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 6,875 to 6,899.9999 | 13% | 5¢ | 12¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 6,925 to 6,949.9999 | 4% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,024.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 6,650 to 6,674.9999 | 4% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 6,900 to 6,924.9999 | 2% | 3¢ | 9¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 6,775 to 6,799.9999 | 14% | 7¢ | 18¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 6,725 to 6,749.9999 | 8% | 1¢ | 7¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 6,675 to 6,699.9999 | 5% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 7,050 to 7,074.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 6,700 to 6,724.9999 | 6% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 6,975 to 6,999.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 6,750 to 6,774.9999 | 8% | 2¢ | 9¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 6,950 to 6,974.9999 | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 6,550 to 6,574.9999 | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 7,025 to 7,049.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 6,625 to 6,649.9999 | 3% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,624.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $603 | Trade → |
| 6,575 to 6,599.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $525 | Trade → |
| 7,225 to 7,249.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $468 | Trade → |
| 7,175 to 7,199.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $461 | Trade → |
| 7,200 to 7,224.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $461 | Trade → |
| 7,075 to 7,099.9999 | 14% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $460 | Trade → |
| 7,125 to 7,149.9999 | 10% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $460 | Trade → |
| 7,100 to 7,124.9999 | 12% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $460 | Trade → |
| 7,150 to 7,174.9999 | 12% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $460 | Trade → |
| 7,250 or above | 11% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7 | Trade → |
This market asks which S&P 500 price range will contain the index level at 4:00 pm EST on March 6, 2026, and matters because the S&P close is a widely used benchmark for portfolio valuation, option settlement, and market sentiment.
Background drivers include macroeconomic data releases, central bank policy expectations, and major corporate news that influence risk appetite and index composition. The market shows 30 distinct outcome ranges and has recorded $43,840 in trading volume on Kalshi, indicating how participants are expressing views in a granular, time‑specific way.
Market prices in this contract aggregate participant expectations about where the S&P will close at the specified time; prices move as new information arrives and should be read as market-implied beliefs rather than certain forecasts.
The winning outcome is the price-range interval that contains the official S&P 500 index level at the market close time specified (4:00:00 pm EST) according to the settlement source defined by the exchange — check the Kalshi event page for the precise settlement reference.
This market offers 30 distinct outcomes, which means the full S&P range is split into relatively narrow intervals; more outcomes increase granularity but can spread liquidity across many buckets, so traders should review order depth before committing.
Total volume is a historical aggregate of traded dollars and gives a rough sense of participation; higher volume generally improves the ability to enter or exit positions at tighter prices, but you should also inspect the current order book and bid/ask spreads for real‑time liquidity.
Potential movers include major US economic releases (for example, employment or inflation data), notable central bank communications or speeches, large corporate earnings or guidance from key index constituents, and scheduled Treasury or liquidity events — consult a current economic calendar for exact timings near Mar 6, 2026.
No — only the official index level at the specified settlement time (4:00 pm EST) determines the winning range; an opening gap matters only to the extent it influences price action and where the index ends up at the close.