| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,850 to 6,874.9999 | 38% | 39¢ | 42¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 5% | 1¢ | 4¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 6,875 to 6,899.9999 | 55% | 54¢ | 60¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 6,549.9999 or below | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 6,925 to 6,949.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 6,900 to 6,924.9999 | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 6,800 to 6,824.9999 | 4% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 6,775 to 6,799.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 6,750 to 6,774.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 6,700 to 6,724.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 6,725 to 6,749.9999 | 8% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,024.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 7,150 to 7,174.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,624.9999 | 12% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $808 | Trade → |
| 6,675 to 6,699.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $800 | Trade → |
| 6,950 to 6,974.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $644 | Trade → |
| 6,975 to 6,999.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $608 | Trade → |
| 7,100 to 7,124.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $600 | Trade → |
| 7,075 to 7,099.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $596 | Trade → |
| 7,225 to 7,249.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $559 | Trade → |
| 7,200 to 7,224.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $559 | Trade → |
| 7,175 to 7,199.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $500 | Trade → |
| 7,125 to 7,149.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $500 | Trade → |
| 7,050 to 7,074.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $486 | Trade → |
| 7,025 to 7,049.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $486 | Trade → |
| 6,550 to 6,574.9999 | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $235 | Trade → |
| 6,650 to 6,674.9999 | 4% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $132 | Trade → |
| 6,575 to 6,599.9999 | 8% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $34 | Trade → |
| 6,625 to 6,649.9999 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $2 | Trade → |
| 7,250 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price range the S&P 500 will occupy at 4:00 pm EST on March 2, 2026. It aggregates trader expectations across 30 discrete outcomes and provides a real‑time view of market sentiment about the index close.
The S&P 500 is a widely watched benchmark whose level responds to macroeconomic data, central bank communications, corporate earnings, and shifting investor risk appetite. In the days and hours before a settlement time, scheduled releases and headline news can move the index and change the distribution of expectations. End‑of‑day technical flows such as rebalancing and large institutional orders also frequently affect the closing level.
Platform prices reflect the market consensus about which interval is expected to contain the official S&P level at the stated settlement time and update as participants trade; use them to gauge relative market expectations rather than as fixed forecasts.
Settlement uses the official S&P 500 index level at 4:00 pm EST on March 2, 2026 as published by the designated index/data provider; the market page and platform rules identify the authoritative data source.
The outcome whose defined price interval contains the official index value at the settlement time is declared the winner; consult the market's range definitions and the platform's settlement rules for handling exact boundary values and ties.
No — this market specifically references the index level at 4:00 pm EST (the regular-session close), so price moves occurring after that time in after‑hours sessions do not affect settlement.
The market page currently lists the close as TBD; the platform will post the official trading cutoff and any last‑trade deadlines—check the market page for the final trading window and any intraday updates.
The platform's contingency and dispute policies govern disruptions: settlement may use a revised authoritative value, an alternate data source, a delayed determination, or a formal dispute resolution process; review the platform's official rules for the exact procedures.