| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 or above | 34% | 34¢ | 61¢ | — | $922 | Trade → |
| $82 or above | 85% | 78¢ | 89¢ | — | $830 | Trade → |
| $88 or above | 64% | 51¢ | 67¢ | — | $326 | Trade → |
| $76 or above | 97% | 96¢ | 97¢ | — | $234 | Trade → |
| $89 or above | 67% | 39¢ | 65¢ | — | $144 | Trade → |
| $79 or above | 94% | 87¢ | 93¢ | — | $142 | Trade → |
| $87 or above | 63% | 51¢ | 70¢ | — | $127 | Trade → |
| $85 or above | 73% | 65¢ | 74¢ | — | $71 | Trade → |
| $86 or above | 54% | 53¢ | 70¢ | — | $33 | Trade → |
| $80 or above | 90% | 85¢ | 94¢ | — | $22 | Trade → |
| $84 or above | 0% | 62¢ | 81¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $78 or above | 0% | 81¢ | 92¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $77 or above | 0% | 81¢ | 92¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $81 or above | 0% | 79¢ | 91¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $83 or above | 0% | 65¢ | 86¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which WTI crude oil price outcome will apply on March 12, 2026, providing a way to express expectations about the front-month U.S. crude benchmark on that date. It matters because WTI prices influence energy markets, refining margins, and broader macroeconomic and financial decisions.
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the U.S. dollar‑denominated crude oil benchmark traded on U.S. futures exchanges and used widely as a reference for oil contracts. Prices on any calendar date reflect supply and demand fundamentals, inventory data, geopolitical events, OPEC+ policy, U.S. production and export trends, and macroeconomic indicators like global growth and currency moves. Market structure — including calendar spreads, storage economics, and seasonal demand — also shapes short-term price outcomes.
Prediction market odds aggregate participants' views about which price range (outcome) is most likely on the settlement date; they should be interpreted as a real-time, crowd-sourced indicator of market sentiment rather than a deterministic forecast. For official settlement details, always consult the event's rules to see the price source and timestamp used to determine the winning outcome.
The contract settles using the price source and timestamp specified in the event rules on the market page (commonly an exchange front‑month settlement or a published spot price). Check the event's settlement section for the official data provider, exchange, and timezone used to compute the final value.
Each of the 15 outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive WTI price range or level defined in the market description; the exact boundaries are shown on the event page. One outcome will be declared the winner based on where the official settlement price falls relative to those listed ranges.
Key influences typically arrive in the days and weeks leading up to the settlement date — notably weekly inventory reports, central bank or macroeconomic releases, OPEC+ meeting outcomes, and any sudden geopolitical events. Closer to the date, short‑term factors like weather and transport disruptions can have outsized effects.
Market movers include producers and national oil companies (supply decisions), refiners and traders (demand and logistics), large hedge funds and systematic traders (liquidity and positioning), and policy actors (sanctions, trade policy, OPEC+ coordination). Their aggregate actions affect both physical balances and futures prices.
Translate headlines into their expected impact on supply/demand balance and price direction, then assess whether that implied move is large enough to shift the price into a different outcome range. Also consider existing market positioning, seasonality, and whether the news is transitory or structural before concluding how it affects the outcome probabilities.