| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive Growth | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the S&P 500 index will end the current calendar year with a higher closing level than its reference starting level. It matters because the S&P 500 is a widely followed gauge of U.S. equity performance and this outcome summarizes market sentiment about the year ahead.
The S&P 500 is a market-capitalization-weighted index of large U.S. companies and is influenced by earnings, monetary policy, inflation, and geopolitical events. Historically the index has experienced both positive and negative calendar years; annual outcomes reflect a mix of macroeconomic trends, corporate results, and investor positioning.
Prices in this prediction market reflect the aggregate views of traders and update as new information arrives; treat them as a real-time, tradable expression of market consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
It means the S&P 500 index value used for settlement is higher on the specified year-end reference close than the contract’s defined starting reference; consult the KALSHI event page for the precise settlement reference and timing used for this market.
The market close/settlement date is listed as TBD on the event; KALSHI will publish the official close and settlement timing on the event page and in the contract terms when determined.
Earnings seasons can move the index via beats, misses, and guidance from large constituents; strong cumulative earnings or positive forward guidance during the year can push the index higher and influence how traders price this contract.
Fed rate moves and forward guidance affect discount rates, sector valuations, and risk appetite; market participants will reprice the contract as rate expectations and the macro outlook change during the year.
Settlement uses the published S&P 500 index value as reported by the index provider; that value reflects the price index (not total return dividends) and incorporates any official reconstitutions or constituent changes as reflected in the published series.