| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25,249.86 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the NASDAQ-100 will end the 2026 calendar year with a net gain versus its opening level; it matters because the NASDAQ-100 is a tech-heavy benchmark whose year-end direction signals broad investor sentiment toward growth stocks.
The NASDAQ-100 is concentrated in large-cap technology, communications, and consumer-facing growth companies, so its calendar-year performance depends heavily on earnings, innovation cycles, and sector rotations. Historically it has been more volatile than broad-market indices, making single-year outcomes sensitive to monetary policy shifts, corporate earnings surprises, and major regulatory or technology developments.
Market odds on this platform reflect traders’ aggregate views about the likelihood of a positive 2026 finish and move as new information arrives; they should be read as a real-time market-implied assessment rather than a deterministic forecast. Check the contract’s settlement rules on Kalshi for the exact operational definition and data source used to determine the outcome.
It generally means the NASDAQ-100’s official index level at the designated settlement close on the final trading day of 2026 is strictly higher than the index level used as the contract’s starting reference; the contract’s page on Kalshi and its settlement terms specify the exact reference levels and timing.
Settlement uses the specific NASDAQ-100 index series and data vendor identified in the contract terms on Kalshi; consult the contract details for the named index series and official data provider used for final settlement.
Most NASDAQ-100 contracts reference the price index level, which excludes dividends (not a total-return measure); review the contract’s definition to confirm whether settlement is based on price-level changes only.
A result equal to the starting reference is typically not considered a positive finish (it is not higher), but the final resolution rule is determined by Kalshi’s published settlement procedure for this contract—check those rules for the definitive tie-breaker or edge cases.
The outcome is finalized after the official close and publication of the settlement value from the contract’s designated data source; Kalshi’s settlement timeline and publication procedures on the contract page explain when traders should expect the official resolution.