| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 156.249 or below | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 159.500 or above | 10% | 8¢ | 17¢ | — | $866 | Trade → |
| 157.750 to 157.999 | 11% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $398 | Trade → |
| 157.500 to 157.749 | 7% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $165 | Trade → |
| 158.500 to 158.749 | 21% | 15¢ | 21¢ | — | $164 | Trade → |
| 157.000 to 157.249 | 9% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $148 | Trade → |
| 156.250 to 156.499 | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $115 | Trade → |
| 158.250 to 158.499 | 9% | 6¢ | 16¢ | — | $96 | Trade → |
| 157.250 to 157.499 | 6% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $90 | Trade → |
| 158.000 to 158.249 | 9% | 1¢ | 11¢ | — | $65 | Trade → |
| 158.750 to 158.999 | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | — | $26 | Trade → |
| 156.750 to 156.999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 159.000 to 159.249 | 0% | 10¢ | 21¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 156.500 to 156.749 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 159.250 to 159.499 | 0% | 6¢ | 16¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which USD/JPY price will prevail at 10:00 AM EDT on March 9, 2026; it matters because that snapshot captures the exchange rate drivers affecting exporters, importers, traders and hedgers across the U.S. and Japan.
USD/JPY is driven by the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, central bank guidance, inflation and growth data, and global risk sentiment. In recent years the pair has been sensitive to shifts in Bank of Japan communication, U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes, and episodes of risk-off haven flows into the yen. Events between now and settlement — including major macro releases, central bank speeches, and geopolitical developments — can change the price trajectory quickly.
Market odds aggregate participant expectations and update as new information arrives; they summarize how traders are pricing different price ranges but do not guarantee an outcome. Use odds as a real-time indicator of market consensus while also considering liquidity, news flow, and modelled risk scenarios.
Settlement is based on the price published at the precise timestamp specified in the market rules; check the event page for the agreed data feed and tie‑breaker procedures, since the official settle source and exact cutoff define the reference rate.
Look for major U.S. releases (employment, CPI, retail sales) and any Japan macro prints or BoJ communications within the 48 hours leading to settlement; large surprises in these releases typically produce the biggest intraday moves in USD/JPY.
A BoJ surprise that tightens policy or signals earlier normalization would tend to support the yen (lower USD/JPY), while additional easing or dovish communication would tend to weaken the yen (higher USD/JPY); magnitude depends on the surprise size and market positioning.
Liquidity conditions around the settlement time affect volatility and the potential for transient spikes; times with thinner order books or coincident option expiries can produce larger, less persistent moves, so traders should account for session overlap and historical intraday liquidity patterns.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific price interval (a bin) that covers a range of USD/JPY values; before trading, verify the exact bin boundaries, the data source used for settlement, the settlement timestamp, and any fees or position limits on the event page.