| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 157.500 to 157.749 | 25% | 14¢ | 24¢ | — | $488 | Trade → |
| 155.999 or below | 7% | 2¢ | 6¢ | — | $120 | Trade → |
| 157.750 to 157.999 | 22% | 7¢ | 24¢ | — | $96 | Trade → |
| 156.000 to 156.249 | 10% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $17 | Trade → |
| 157.000 to 157.249 | 0% | 2¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 158.750 to 158.999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 157.250 to 157.499 | 0% | 5¢ | 22¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 156.500 to 156.749 | 0% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 158.250 to 158.499 | 0% | 0¢ | 16¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 159.250 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 156.250 to 156.499 | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 158.500 to 158.749 | 0% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 156.750 to 156.999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 159.000 to 159.249 | 0% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 158.000 to 158.249 | 0% | 3¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which USD/JPY price range will contain the spot exchange rate at 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time on March 4, 2026. That timestamp matters to traders because USD/JPY is a key indicator of global funding conditions, carry trades, and cross‑market flows between the U.S. and Japan.
USD/JPY is driven by differences in U.S. and Japanese monetary policy, Japanese yen safe‑haven demand, and global risk sentiment; in recent years the pair has been sensitive to Bank of Japan guidance and U.S. Treasury yields. Market structure, such as liquidity around major session overlaps and option expiries, also shapes short‑term moves heading into a fixed timestamp event like this one.
Market odds on this event represent which discrete price bucket traders expect the spot rate to fall into at the specified timestamp; they update as news, central‑bank signals, and flow information arrive. Odds are a real‑time summary of expressed market views, not a guaranteed outcome.
10:00 AM EST on Mar 4, 2026 corresponds to 15:00 UTC on Mar 4, 2026; that is 15:00 in London (GMT) on Mar 4 and 00:00 Japan Standard Time on Mar 5 for Tokyo markets.
Each outcome represents a pre‑specified USD/JPY price interval; the winning outcome is the interval that contains the official USD/JPY spot price at the event timestamp as reported by the platform's designated market data source and settlement rules.
Key movers include any Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan policy decisions or speeches, U.S. macro prints that affect inflation and employment (e.g., CPI, jobs reports), and major Japanese data releases; unexpected geopolitical or fiscal developments can also drive large moves.
Lower traded volume typically means thinner liquidity and greater sensitivity to individual orders, so quoted odds may be more volatile and less robust as a consensus forecast; higher volume generally improves price discovery and reduces idiosyncratic noise.
In the event of a holiday or trading disruption, the platform will follow its published contingency and settlement rules, which commonly reference alternate data feeds, the nearest available market price, or a delayed observation window; check the market's official rulebook for precise procedures.