| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 155.499 or below | 11% | 11¢ | 12¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 158.250 to 158.499 | 14% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $155 | Trade → |
| 157.250 to 157.499 | 25% | 8¢ | 24¢ | — | $85 | Trade → |
| 155.500 to 155.749 | 3% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $82 | Trade → |
| 157.500 to 157.749 | 5% | 5¢ | 22¢ | — | $76 | Trade → |
| 156.000 to 156.249 | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 157.750 to 157.999 | 0% | 2¢ | 18¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 158.750 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 158.000 to 158.249 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 156.250 to 156.499 | 0% | 0¢ | 13¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 155.750 to 155.999 | 0% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 156.500 to 156.749 | 0% | 0¢ | 16¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 158.500 to 158.749 | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 156.750 to 156.999 | 0% | 3¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 157.000 to 157.249 | 0% | 6¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the USD/JPY exchange rate will be at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on March 3, 2026. It matters because USD/JPY is a major currency pair used by traders, corporations, and policymakers to gauge global interest-rate differentials, capital flows, and risk sentiment.
USD/JPY is driven by monetary policy differences between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, as well as flows into or out of Japan’s large currency markets. Historical moves have reflected changes in real and nominal interest rates, Japanese government bond supply and yield dynamics, global risk-on/risk-off episodes, and sudden geopolitical or macro announcements.
Prediction market prices reflect collective market participants’ views about which price-range outcome will prevail at the resolution timestamp; they are not guaranteed forecasts but aggregates of available information and risk preferences. Use them alongside independent market data and an understanding of drivers rather than as a sole decision input.
The market resolves to the official USD/JPY spot rate at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on March 3, 2026, as determined by the price source specified in the event’s resolution rules on the KALSHI event page.
The event header currently lists the close as TBD; KALSHI will display the final trading close time on the event page—check there for updates and any announced cutoff before the resolution timestamp.
Movers include major U.S. data releases and Fed communications, Japan inflation and economic reports, any BOJ statements or interventions, large shifts in U.S. Treasury yields, and abrupt geopolitical or risk shocks that change safe-haven demand for JPY.
Each outcome label on the event page specifies a price range or level; consult the outcome descriptions and contract details on KALSHI to map a numeric USD/JPY quote to the correct outcome before trading.
Resolution fallback procedures are defined in the event’s rules on KALSHI—these typically specify alternate data sources, nearest-available quotes, or other predefined methods for determining the resolution price; review those rules for the exact process.