| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 156.000 to 156.249 | 2% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 155.750 to 155.999 | 2% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $661 | Trade → |
| 154.499 or below | 13% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $525 | Trade → |
| 157.000 to 157.249 | 99% | 1¢ | 97¢ | — | $442 | Trade → |
| 157.750 or above | 3% | 2¢ | 99¢ | — | $325 | Trade → |
| 155.500 to 155.749 | 2% | 0¢ | 14¢ | — | $269 | Trade → |
| 156.500 to 156.749 | 2% | 0¢ | 97¢ | — | $244 | Trade → |
| 156.250 to 156.499 | 3% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $79 | Trade → |
| 156.750 to 156.999 | 2% | 2¢ | 97¢ | — | $43 | Trade → |
| 154.750 to 154.999 | 99% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $34 | Trade → |
| 154.500 to 154.749 | 11% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $28 | Trade → |
| 157.500 to 157.749 | 14% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| 157.250 to 157.499 | 0% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 155.000 to 155.249 | 0% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 155.250 to 155.499 | 0% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which USD/JPY price band will prevail at 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time on March 2, 2026; it matters because the USD/JPY rate at that instant affects FX hedges, cross‑border cash flows, and short‑term trading decisions.
The USD/JPY pair is driven by differences in US and Japanese monetary policy, macroeconomic surprises, and occasional FX intervention by Japanese authorities. This specific Kalshi market offers 15 discrete outcomes and has recorded $4,060 in traded volume; the market close is listed as TBD on the event page, so timing for final trading may change per platform rules.
Market prices on this contract reflect the consensus view of participants about where USD/JPY will be at the specified timestamp and incorporate available public and private information; treat them as a real‑time aggregation of expectations rather than a guarantee of the realized price.
The event page specifies the official settlement reference (price vendor and timing); check the Kalshi event description for the named data source and any averaging or snapshot rules used to determine the settled price.
Surprising macro releases immediately before settlement can move the spot USD/JPY significantly and that information will be reflected in last‑minute trading; traders should review the event's settlement window (e.g., snapshot vs. averaged price) to understand sensitivity to late prints.
Yes — Kalshi reserves the right to suspend, cancel, or amend markets for regulatory, operational, or force‑majeure reasons; consult the platform's rules and the specific event page for any announcements about changes to this contract.
The event uses the specified timezone label (10:00 AM EST); verify the event page for any clarifications and convert to your local time in advance, taking into account that local DST rules may differ from the EST label used on the event.
Rapid moves have historically followed surprise central bank policy shifts, large macroeconomic surprises (US CPI/jobs, Japanese inflation or GDP), sudden risk‑off episodes in global markets, and announcements or rumors of Japan FX intervention.