| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 158.000 to 158.249 | 3% | 3¢ | 13¢ | — | $113 | Trade → |
| 156.750 to 156.999 | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $93 | Trade → |
| 159.000 to 159.249 | 9% | 9¢ | 15¢ | — | $66 | Trade → |
| 156.749 or below | 5% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18 | Trade → |
| 158.750 to 158.999 | 9% | 9¢ | 15¢ | — | $17 | Trade → |
| 159.500 to 159.749 | 3% | 3¢ | 14¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| 159.250 to 159.499 | 6% | 6¢ | 17¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| 158.500 to 158.749 | 7% | 8¢ | 18¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| 158.250 to 158.499 | 5% | 5¢ | 15¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| 157.000 to 157.249 | 0% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 159.750 to 159.999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 157.750 to 157.999 | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 157.250 to 157.499 | 0% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 157.500 to 157.749 | 0% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 160.000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which USD/JPY price will prevail at 10:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 12, 2026. Outcomes provide a way for traders to express views on the dollar/yen level at that specific timestamp, which matters for FX hedging and short-term macro positioning.
USD/JPY is driven by monetary policy differentials, Japanese yield dynamics, global risk sentiment, and episodic geopolitical or economic news; those forces determine where the pair trades at the resolution time. This KALSHI event uses 15 discrete outcomes and shows current liquidity (total reported volume $319); the market close and final settlement mechanics are defined by the platform and may be published separately.
Prediction market odds summarize the marketplace's collective expectations for each discrete price outcome and are useful as one real-time input into decision making. Interpret odds alongside liquidity, market structure, and external information rather than as definitive forecasts.
Settlement is based on the reference rate and method specified by the platform’s rules for this event; check the event page or rulebook to see whether settlement uses a single-exchange spot quote, a consolidated feed, or an averaging window around 10:00 AM EDT.
The market close time is set by the platform and may be listed as TBD on the event page; trades executed after the platform’s official close or after the defined settlement window will not affect the resolved outcome, so monitor the event page for the announced cut-off.
Economic releases shortly before 10:00 AM can materially shift spot FX via order flow and volatility; the settled price will reflect the market’s immediate reaction, so consider the timing of releases relative to the resolution timestamp when evaluating outcomes.
Low volume generally means higher sensitivity to individual trades, wider effective spreads, and greater idiosyncratic noise; treat market-implied information from low-liquidity events cautiously and combine it with external market data and context.
A rapid spike at the resolution time will influence the settled price according to the platform’s settlement rules (e.g., single-timestamp quote vs. averaging window); consult the event’s settlement definition to understand whether transitory blips or short-lived spikes are captured.