| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market trades the value of the spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2026. The 10Y–3M spread is closely watched because it summarizes expectations about monetary policy, growth, inflation and financial conditions.
Historically, changes in the 10Y–3M spread have signaled shifts in the economic cycle: persistent inversion has often preceded recessions, while steepening has accompanied growth and rising inflation expectations. Over the past decade, central-bank balance-sheet policies, changes in term premium, and large Treasury issuance have altered spread dynamics, so current behavior reflects both fundamentals and structural market factors. The spread on Dec 31, 2026 will embed the cumulative effect of policy, macro data, and technicals realized through that date.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' views about where the spread will stand at the contract's settlement time; prices move as new information arrives. Treat market prices as a real‑time indicator of collective beliefs, not as a forecast guarantee.
The contract will settle based on the yields specified in its settlement rules; typically this is the on‑the‑run 10‑year and 3‑month Treasury yields as published by major market data providers at or near the close of the U.S. Treasury market on Dec 31, 2026. Check the event's official contract specifications on Kalshi for the precise data source and timestamp used for settlement.
Most contracts use a single snapshot at the specified settlement time on the target date, so only the spread at that measurement moment determines the outcome. Intraday moves earlier in the period typically do not affect settlement unless the contract explicitly states otherwise—confirm the contract's settlement methodology.
The Fed directly influences short‑term rates, so policy tightening usually pushes the 3‑month yield higher faster than the 10‑year, flattening or potentially inverting the spread; easing or expectations of easing tend to lower the 3‑month yield and can steepen the spread. The 10‑year also responds to inflation expectations and term premium, so its movement will reflect both policy expectations and longer‑run real yield shifts.
Inversions have historically preceded recessions because short rates rising above long rates signal tight monetary conditions relative to long‑run growth expectations. Caveats: timing between inversion and economic downturns varies, term premium and structural market changes can alter the signal, and this contract captures only the spread value at one settlement moment rather than the full path.
Key participants include the Federal Reserve (policy and balance‑sheet moves), the U.S. Treasury (issuance mix and size), primary dealers and large institutional investors (positioning and hedging flows), foreign official buyers and money‑market funds (demand for bills vs. notes), and market‑wide liquidity providers. Actions that change short‑term policy expectations, long‑term inflation expectations, or large net supply/demand imbalances tend to move the spread most.