| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.16% to 4.18% | 83% | 20¢ | 90¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 4.19% to 4.21% | 17% | 8¢ | 80¢ | — | $682 | Trade → |
| 3.94% or below | 3% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $539 | Trade → |
| 4.13% to 4.15% | 36% | 2¢ | 56¢ | — | $232 | Trade → |
| 4.31% to 4.33% | 21% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $215 | Trade → |
| 4.07% to 4.09% | 14% | 0¢ | 14¢ | — | $53 | Trade → |
| 3.95% to 3.97% | 4% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| 4.25% to 4.27% | 6% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $8 | Trade → |
| 4.1% to 4.12% | 14% | 0¢ | 62¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| 4.28% to 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 64¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.34% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 14¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.04% to 4.06% | 0% | 0¢ | 82¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.22% to 4.24% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.01% to 4.03% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.98% to 4% | 0% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Treasury 10‑year yield will be on March 9, 2026; the 10‑year yield is a key benchmark that influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and broader financial conditions.
The 10‑year Treasury yield reflects investor expectations about inflation, economic growth, and central bank policy. Over time yields move in response to macro data, Federal Reserve communication, Treasury issuance, and global risk sentiment, so outcomes on this date will be shaped by the cumulative path of those forces up to March 9, 2026.
Market prices on this contract represent the collective assessment of which yield outcome will match the official reference on that date; use prices as real‑time market information, not guaranteed predictions.
It will settle to the official value of the U.S. Treasury 10‑year yield as observed on March 9, 2026, according to the platform's published settlement source and rules; consult the contract terms for the exact reference and any rounding or publication window.
The 15 outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive yield buckets or discrete levels that together cover the range of possible yields; at settlement the outcome whose bucket contains the observed reference yield will be the winning outcome—see the event's outcome table for precise boundaries and tie‑breaking rules.
The event listing shows 'Closes: TBD,' so final trading close will be set by the platform; settlement is finalized after the reference yield for March 9, 2026 is published and verified per the market's settlement procedures—check the platform's schedule and settlement FAQ for exact timing.
Look at how the 10‑year has historically responded to Federal Reserve policy cycles, inflation surprises, employment and GDP surprises, and large Treasury auctions; studying reaction patterns around data releases and Fed meetings can help contextualize likely moves.
Key movers include the Federal Reserve (policy changes and guidance), U.S. Treasury issuance decisions, major economic data releases, large institutional investors and foreign central banks reallocating reserves, and sudden geopolitical or financial stress events; note that on‑platform trading volume (reported here) is small relative to the cash Treasury market, which is driven by institutional flows.