| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.23% or above | 98% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $638 | Trade → |
| 3.83% or below | 8% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $637 | Trade → |
| 4.05% to 4.07% | 10% | 4¢ | 11¢ | — | $563 | Trade → |
| 4.08% to 4.1% | 33% | 13¢ | 20¢ | — | $307 | Trade → |
| 3.84% to 3.86% | 10% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $306 | Trade → |
| 4.14% to 4.16% | 20% | 19¢ | 25¢ | — | $164 | Trade → |
| 3.87% to 3.89% | 9% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $104 | Trade → |
| 3.99% to 4.01% | 20% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $88 | Trade → |
| 4.17% to 4.19% | 11% | 9¢ | 18¢ | — | $76 | Trade → |
| 3.93% to 3.95% | 24% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $55 | Trade → |
| 3.96% to 3.98% | 12% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $51 | Trade → |
| 4.02% to 4.04% | 11% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $38 | Trade → |
| 4.11% to 4.13% | 21% | 20¢ | 23¢ | — | $11 | Trade → |
| 4.2% to 4.22% | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.9% to 3.92% | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which yield range the US Treasury 10-year will fall into on March 6, 2026; the 10-year is a key benchmark that affects mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and broader financial conditions.
Yields reflect market expectations about growth, inflation, central-bank policy, and global demand for safe assets. Movements since 2022–2024 have been driven by inflation surprises, Fed rate-path changes, and shifts in Treasury supply and foreign demand, all of which form the backdrop heading into March 2026.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about where the 10-year yield will be on that date and should be used as a real-time sentiment indicator rather than a single definitive forecast. Combine market-implied views with macroeconomic analysis and risk scenarios when making decisions.
The market close time is listed on the event page (currently marked TBD); the final outcome is determined by the official 10-year yield reference specified in the market's settlement rules for the published value on March 6, 2026—check the event rules for the precise data source and settlement time.
This event offers 15 discrete outcomes, each corresponding to a specific yield range for the 10-year on March 6, 2026; the exact numeric boundaries for each outcome are published on the market page and determine which outcome pays out at settlement.
Key potential movers include monthly CPI and PCE inflation reports, the monthly employment report, GDP releases, FOMC statements and minutes, and any unexpected Fed commentary or off-cycle meetings; each can materially shift rate expectations ahead of the settlement date.
Yes. Larger-than-expected Treasury issuance or surprising fiscal plans can put upward pressure on yields, while reduced issuance or strong demand (domestic or foreign) can push yields lower; because settlement uses the market-observed yield on the settlement date, these supply-side developments matter.
Use the market as a forward signal of market-implied expectations for the 10-year on Mar 6, 2026 to inform duration hedges, scenario analyses, or relative-value trades; account for market liquidity, fees, and the event's outcome boundaries when sizing positions and constructing hedges.