| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.88% to 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.94% to 3.96% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.91% to 3.93% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4% to 4.02% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.09% to 4.11% | 0% | 1¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.21% to 4.23% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.06% to 4.08% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.27% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.87% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.03% to 4.05% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.97% to 3.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.15% to 4.17% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.12% to 4.14% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.24% to 4.26% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.18% to 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks where the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield will settle on Mar 5, 2026; it matters because the 10-year yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, financial markets, and inflation expectations.
The 10-year Treasury yield reflects market expectations about growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy and has been a focal point for investors since the recent period of heightened monetary and fiscal intervention. Over recent years yields have moved materially in response to pandemic-era policy, subsequent tightening, and shifting growth/inflation dynamics, making future levels a live macro indicator.
Prices in this prediction market reflect traders' aggregated views about the yield on the specified date and will change as new data and news arrive; they should be read as a market-implied consensus rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Settlement follows the platform's event rules: the official published 10-year Treasury yield on Mar 5, 2026, at the reference time and source specified on the event page determines which outcome is resolved. Check the event page for the exact data source and settlement time.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined yield interval or bucket that contains the reported 10-year yield for Mar 5, 2026; the event page lists the exact boundaries and which bucket will pay out if the official yield falls within it.
Major U.S. data releases (monthly CPI and employment reports, quarterly GDP/PCE) and scheduled FOMC communications or meetings, as well as any unscheduled geopolitical or fiscal announcements, are the highest-probability drivers of movement in expectations for the 10-year yield.
Tie-breaker rules for boundary cases depend on the platform's settlement policy; the event page and the platform's rulebook specify how exact-boundary values are handled and which outcome is declared the winner.
Large moves typically reflect new information that materially changes expectations (surprise data, policy shifts, or liquidity events); they indicate the market updating beliefs, but individual price snapshots are not guarantees—consider volume, order book depth, and recent news alongside prices.