| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.86% or below | 8% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $117 | Trade → |
| 4.26% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.9% to 3.92% | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.23% to 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.93% to 3.95% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.17% to 4.19% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.11% to 4.13% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.99% to 4.01% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.87% to 3.89% | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.96% to 3.98% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.2% to 4.22% | 0% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.08% to 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.02% to 4.04% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.05% to 4.07% | 0% | 4¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.14% to 4.16% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which yield range the U.S. Treasury 10-year note will fall into on Mar 4, 2026. It matters because the 10-year yield is a benchmark for borrowing costs and a barometer of investor expectations about growth and inflation.
The 10-year Treasury yield moves with Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data, economic growth, and global risk sentiment; it has historically been a focal point for markets and policymakers. This market captures a single-day snapshot that integrates recent macro releases, central-bank signals, and Treasury market positioning up to the settlement time.
Prices in this prediction market reflect how traders collectively price the different discrete yield-range outcomes for Mar 4, 2026. Changes in those prices show how new information shifts market consensus about where the 10-year yield will settle on that date.
The event is settled according to the exchange's official settlement source and specified timestamp; consult the market's event details and rulebook on the Kalshi page to see the precise reference (e.g., which publication and the time on Mar 4, 2026).
The 15 outcomes correspond to contiguous yield ranges (discrete buckets). The event listing on Kalshi shows the exact numerical boundaries and labels for each outcome—check that listing to map a reported yield to the correct bucket.
Tie-resolution and boundary rules are part of the event's settlement procedures; the market’s rulebook specifies how boundary values are handled (for example, whether a boundary goes to the lower or upper bucket or if additional decimals are used). Review the event rules for the definitive method.
Monitor Fed statements and Fed-speaker calendars, monthly inflation reports (CPI/PCE), employment data (especially nonfarm payrolls and unemployment), any GDP or durable-goods updates, and scheduled Treasury auctions—each can materially shift 10-year yield expectations ahead of Mar 4.
Markets with modest trading volume and shallow order books can show larger price swings from individual trades, so check the event page for order-book depth and recent trade history; higher volume and broader participation generally make prices more reliable as a consensus signal.