| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.26% to 4.28% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.29% to 4.31% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.32% to 4.34% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.35% to 4.37% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.38% to 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.41% to 4.43% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.44% to 4.46% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.47% to 4.49% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.5% to 4.52% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.53% to 4.55% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.56% to 4.58% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.59% to 4.61% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.62% to 4.64% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.65% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note on March 31, 2026. The 10-year yield is a fundamental benchmark for global capital markets, influencing mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and valuation models for assets.
The 10-year Treasury yield is primarily driven by expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation trends, and overall economic growth projections. Over long periods, yields fluctuate based on the market's assessment of fiscal sustainability, global demand for U.S. debt, and the 'term premium' investors require to hold long-term government securities.
The price of each outcome represents the market's collective consensus on the range in which the 10-year yield will settle on the target date. Higher prices reflect outcomes that the market considers more likely to occur based on current economic data.
The value is derived from the secondary market yield of the most recently issued 10-year U.S. Treasury note (the 'on-the-run' security) as of the market close on March 31, 2026.
If the markets are closed on the expiration date, the yield will be based on the closing data from the last preceding business day when the U.S. Treasury market was active.
It serves as the 'risk-free' rate for many financial models and acts as the primary benchmark for pricing long-term consumer debt, such as 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
If the Federal Reserve signals a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment, yields often face upward pressure; conversely, signs of economic cooling or recession expectations usually drive yields lower.
The yield is publicly reported in real-time by major financial news outlets, the Federal Reserve (H.15 release), and treasury.gov.