| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.23% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.24% to 4.26% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.27% to 4.29% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.3% to 4.32% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.33% to 4.35% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.36% to 4.38% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.39% to 4.41% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.42% to 4.44% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.45% to 4.47% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.48% to 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.51% to 4.53% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.54% to 4.56% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.57% to 4.59% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.6% to 4.62% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.63% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which yield range the U.S. Treasury 10-year note will settle in on March 30, 2026. It matters because the 10‑year Treasury is a global benchmark that reflects expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy.
Long-term Treasury yields move with investor expectations about economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy; they also respond to supply from Treasury issuance and flows into safe‑haven assets. Over recent years yields have reacted to shifting inflation prints, central bank guidance, fiscal stimulus, and global risk events, all of which can drive day‑to‑day and medium‑term moves.
Prediction market prices aggregate participant views about which yield range is most likely on the settlement date; use them as a real‑time, market‑based signal of collective expectations rather than a guaranteed forecast.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific yield interval or discrete value defined on the event page; the outcome that contains the official reported 10‑year yield at the designated settlement time will be the winning outcome.
The event page will list the trading close and the designated reference time for settlement; the resolution uses the official Treasury 10‑year yield value published by the event's stated reference source and any exchange dispute or fallback rules specified in the event terms.
Key movers include FOMC decisions and statements, monthly inflation reports (CPI/PCE), monthly employment and payroll data, GDP revisions, and unexpected fiscal announcements that change issuance or deficits.
Large or unexpected increases in Treasury issuance, weak demand at auctions, or shifts in primary dealer positioning can raise yields; conversely strong bid demand or lighter issuance can help keep yields lower—auction results and issuance plans announced before the settlement date can therefore influence which outcome wins.
The exchange's event terms define contingency and fallback procedures for missing or disputed reference data; consult the event rules on the platform for how they handle unavailable or delayed settlement values.