| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.21% to 4.23% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.24% to 4.26% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.27% to 4.29% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.3% to 4.32% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.33% to 4.35% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.36% to 4.38% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.39% to 4.41% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.42% to 4.44% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.45% to 4.47% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.48% to 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.51% to 4.53% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.54% to 4.56% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.57% to 4.59% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.6% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield will be on March 26, 2026; the 10‑year yield is a key benchmark that influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and broader financial-market pricing.
The 10‑year Treasury yield reflects collective market expectations about economic growth, inflation, and central bank policy and has historically moved with shifts in these fundamentals and in risk appetite. Traders and analysts watch Treasury yields as a barometer of monetary policy expectations and fiscal financing needs, and short-term moves are often driven by data releases, Fed communications, and large fixed‑income flows.
Market prices on this contract aggregate participant views about which yield range the 10‑year will fall into on the settlement date; prices move as new data, policy actions, and supply/demand dynamics change expectations.
This market will resolve to the outcome corresponding to the reported level of the U.S. Treasury 10‑year yield on March 26, 2026; check the contract's settlement rules on the platform for the precise data source and time used for the official measurement.
The 15 outcomes divide the possible yield values into mutually exclusive buckets or ranges; each outcome is a distinct interval that covers a portion of the yield distribution—consult the event page to see the exact range boundaries for each outcome.
The event page lists the market close and settlement timing; if the close is listed as TBD, the platform will publish the official trading close and resolution time before trading begins or as part of the event's rules—always confirm the posted timeline before placing orders.
A Fed announcement that materially shifts expectations for future policy, rate paths, or balance sheet policy can move the 10‑year yield through changing inflation and growth expectations and by altering term premia, which can change the probability that the yield falls into a different outcome bucket.
Resolution contingencies—such as data revisions, market holidays, or exchange disruptions—are covered in the event's settlement rules; the contract will specify the official data source and procedures for unusual circumstances, so review those rules to understand how such cases are handled.