| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.43% to 4.45% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.19% to 4.21% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.31% to 4.33% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.28% to 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.49% to 4.51% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.55% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.15% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.34% to 4.36% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.22% to 4.24% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.25% to 4.27% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.4% to 4.42% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.37% to 4.39% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.16% to 4.18% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.52% to 4.54% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.46% to 4.48% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks where the U.S. Treasury 10‑year yield will be on March 25, 2026 — a key benchmark that influences borrowing costs, mortgage rates, and broad financial market pricing.
The 10‑year Treasury yield reflects the market’s aggregate view of inflation, economic growth, and monetary policy over time; it moves as investors adjust expectations for the Federal Reserve, fiscal supply, and global risk. Historical episodes show yields can shift quickly around central bank decisions, major economic releases, and changes in Treasury issuance or geopolitical risk.
Prediction market prices aggregate participants’ views and update as new information arrives; they should be read as a real‑time indicator of market expectations, not a guaranteed outcome.
Settlement is based on a specific published reference yield and timestamp defined by the event rules — typically a widely used market source (e.g., an interdealer quote or official Treasury reference). Check the event description or settlement rules on the platform for the exact referenced data source.
The platform’s event page or rulebook specifies the precise timestamp (for example, a market close minute in New York or a specific published release time). If the timestamp is not listed on the event page, consult the market’s official resolution rules or support team.
Each outcome corresponds to a defined yield range or point; after the official reference yield is published, the outcome whose range contains that published reading will be declared the winner. Tie or ambiguous cases are resolved according to the market’s stated resolution procedures.
Key items include Federal Reserve meetings and minutes, major inflation releases (monthly CPI/PCE), monthly employment reports, quarterly GDP figures, and large Treasury auctions; speeches by central bankers or unexpected geopolitical developments can also produce rapid moves.
Major participants include the Federal Reserve (through policy and communication), primary dealers, asset managers and pension funds, hedge funds and proprietary traders, and foreign official institutions; their collective buying and selling pressures, positioning, and expectations drive yield movements.