| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.21% to 4.23% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.54% to 4.56% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.51% to 4.53% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.24% to 4.26% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.3% to 4.32% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.45% to 4.47% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.57% to 4.59% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.6% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.33% to 4.35% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.39% to 4.41% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.36% to 4.38% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.42% to 4.44% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.48% to 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.27% to 4.29% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.2% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which yield bracket the US Treasury 10-year will be in on March 24, 2026; outcomes indicate different yield ranges for that specific date. The result matters because the 10-year yield is a benchmark for borrowing costs, mortgage rates, and risk asset valuations.
The 10-year Treasury yield is a focal point for global fixed income markets and reflects the market's view of expected real growth, inflation, and monetary policy. Over time the yield has moved with business cycles, Federal Reserve policy shifts, inflation surprises, and changes in global demand for safe assets. Short-term swings can be driven by data releases and technical flows, while longer-term trends track fundamentals and fiscal issuance.
Prediction market prices aggregate participants' expectations about which yield range will hold on the settlement date; they are dynamic indicators of perceived likelihoods, not guarantees. Use them alongside macro analysis and official data to form a view on possible outcomes.
Settlement will use the official 10-year Treasury yield value specified in the event rules; consult the event description on the trading platform for the exact published source and method used to determine the official yield on that date.
The event currently lists a close time as TBD; the platform will publish the final trading cutoff and the settlement timeline, and settlement will occur after the official yield for Mar 24, 2026 is published according to the event's rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined yield range or bracket listed on the event page; consult the outcome descriptions on the platform to see the exact yield intervals that determine which outcome settles.
Key movers include US inflation reports (CPI, PCE), payrolls and unemployment data, GDP releases, Federal Reserve meeting minutes and rate decisions, and major fiscal announcements affecting Treasury issuance.
Primary movers include institutional investors (pension funds, insurance companies), bond mutual funds and ETFs, hedge funds and macro traders, foreign official accounts and central banks, and the Federal Reserve through policy and communications.