| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% to 4.12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.25% to 4.27% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.22% to 4.24% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.43% to 4.45% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.34% to 4.36% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.31% to 4.33% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.28% to 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.4% to 4.42% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.16% to 4.18% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.13% to 4.15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.07% to 4.09% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.37% to 4.39% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.06% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.19% to 4.21% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.46% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which yield band the U.S. Treasury 10‑year note will trade at on March 23, 2026; it matters because the 10‑year yield is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, financial valuations, and risk pricing. Participation aggregates market views about macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations leading up to that date.
The 10‑year Treasury yield is driven by expectations for inflation, economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and demand for safe assets, and it serves as a reference for mortgages, corporate debt, and other interest rates. Over time the yield has responded to monetary policy cycles, major economic data releases, Treasury issuance patterns, and geopolitical shocks, so markets often show increased movement around policy decisions and large macro releases.
Prediction market odds reflect the collective balance of traders' views about which yield band will hold on the settlement date and update as new information arrives; they are a real‑time indicator of market sentiment, not a guarantee of the outcome.
The market resolves to the official published 10‑year Treasury yield for March 23, 2026 according to the platform's stated settlement rules; check the event details on the platform for the exact data source and the resolution timestamp.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific yield band; after the reference yield for March 23, 2026 is published, the single outcome whose band contains that reported yield will be declared the winner per the event's settlement rules.
Low or zero volume means there may be limited liquidity and wider bid/ask spreads, so prices may reflect the views of few participants and can change sharply as new orders arrive; traders should account for lower depth when entering or exiting positions.
Key movers include Federal Reserve rate decisions and forward guidance, major inflation releases (such as CPI/PCE), employment and GDP reports, large Treasury auctions, and any significant geopolitical or financial stress events that shift risk premia and demand for U.S. government debt.
The platform's contingency and dispute rules apply: they typically specify alternate authoritative sources, the use of the nearest available official reading, or other resolution procedures; consult the event's rules or contact platform support for the exact policy.