| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.23% or above | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 3.9% to 3.92% | 2% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 4.05% to 4.07% | 90% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 3.93% to 3.95% | 13% | 0¢ | 24¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 3.99% to 4.01% | 8% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 4.02% to 4.04% | 1% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 3.87% to 3.89% | 14% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $900 | Trade → |
| 3.83% or below | 7% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $811 | Trade → |
| 3.96% to 3.98% | 36% | 0¢ | 14¢ | — | $758 | Trade → |
| 3.84% to 3.86% | 1% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $163 | Trade → |
| 4.17% to 4.19% | 0% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.11% to 4.13% | 0% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.08% to 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.14% to 4.16% | 0% | 0¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.2% to 4.22% | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which yield bracket the US Treasury 10-year rate will fall into on Mar 2, 2026, and matters because that rate is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, mortgage rates, and risk pricing. The contract on KALSHI offers 15 mutually exclusive outcome ranges for that date.
The 10-year Treasury yield is driven by inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, economic growth, and global demand for safe assets; it serves as a reference for many financial markets. Since the pandemic era yields have been more sensitive to rapid shifts in inflation and central-bank guidance, and yields commonly move in response to macro data releases, Fed communications, and changes in fiscal issuance.
Prediction market prices aggregate participant views about which bracket will prevail on the settlement date; prices change as new information arrives and reflect market consensus at any moment rather than a guaranteed forecast.
KALSHI will specify the published data source and exact timestamp that determine settlement on the contract page and in the market rules; check the event details for the authoritative source and time used for the final yield.
Each outcome represents a distinct, non‑overlapping yield bracket covering the possible values of the 10‑year Treasury on the settlement date; the event page lists the precise numeric ranges for each of the 15 outcomes.
The event currently shows a closing time as TBD; once KALSHI sets a close, trading will stop at that time and settlement will occur after the published reference rate is available per the exchange's settlement rules.
Yes; any Fed announcement or market-moving event that shifts the 10‑year yield before the reference timestamp used for settlement can alter which outcome occurs, because the contract uses the yield level at the specified source and time.
Traders should watch major US releases such as employment reports, inflation measures (CPI/PCE), ISM/manufacturing data, and any Fed minutes or speeches in the lead‑up, since those releases commonly shift short‑ and medium‑term yield expectations.