| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.23% to 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.14% to 4.16% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.41% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.01% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.38% to 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.35% to 4.37% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.29% to 4.31% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.2% to 4.22% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.11% to 4.13% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.17% to 4.19% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.05% to 4.07% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.08% to 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.02% to 4.04% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.32% to 4.34% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.26% to 4.28% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the US Treasury 10-year note yield will be on March 19, 2026 — a key reference rate that influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and broader financial conditions.
The 10-year Treasury yield reflects a mix of inflation expectations, real economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and global demand for safe assets. Historically it has moved with shifts in monetary policy, inflation surprises, fiscal issuance, and episodes of risk aversion; those structural drivers remain relevant heading into March 2026.
Market prices across the discrete outcomes represent the collective market-implied view of where yields will stand on that date and update as new information arrives; they are a real-time consensus indicator rather than a guaranteed prediction.
The event resolves to the 10-year Treasury yield as observed at the exchange-specified observation time on Mar 19, 2026 using the official data source defined in the contract terms; check the market's rules for the precise reporting source and clock used for resolution.
The 15 outcomes are predefined yield ranges or exact levels (see the market's outcome labels) designed to cover a wide span of plausible yields on that date; multiple buckets let traders express fine-grained views about the likely level or range.
The market's close-to-trade time and the official resolution time are specified by the exchange; if the market currently shows 'TBD' for close, participants should monitor the market page and official announcements for the finalized trading cutoff and resolution schedule.
Key movers include scheduled FOMC meetings and Fed communications, monthly inflation reports (CPI, PCE), major employment releases (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment), GDP releases, and significant Treasury auction or issuance announcements — any of which can change expectations about yields by the target date.
Traders can buy or sell outcome buckets that correspond to expected yield ranges to express directional or range-based views, or use the market as a targeted hedge against exposure to rates around that specific date; always review contract settlement mechanics, liquidity, and fees before trading.