| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.09% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.1% to 4.12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.16% to 4.18% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.4% to 4.42% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.31% to 4.33% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.43% to 4.45% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.13% to 4.15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.28% to 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.19% to 4.21% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.37% to 4.39% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.46% to 4.48% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.49% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.34% to 4.36% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.25% to 4.27% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.22% to 4.24% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcome bins will contain the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield on March 17, 2026. The 10-year yield is a key benchmark that affects mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and broad financial-market conditions.
The 10-year Treasury is a benchmark security whose yield reflects investors' views on inflation, growth, and monetary policy; it moves in response to economic data, Federal Reserve guidance, and supply/demand in the Treasury market. Historical moves around mid-March have reflected both seasonal data releases and policy expectations; this particular market offers 15 discrete outcomes so traders can express views across a range of possible yields. At listing the market shows no traded volume, and outcome definitions and settlement rules are set by the exchange.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about which outcome will occur; higher prices indicate greater market confidence in a given outcome relative to others. For exact settlement mechanics and the precise data source used to determine the official 10-year yield on Mar 17, 2026, consult the event page and the exchange's resolution rules.
The winning outcome is determined by the official 10-year Treasury yield value specified in the market's resolution rules — typically the published constant-maturity or closing yield used by the exchange. Check the event page for the exact data source, publication, and rounding conventions the market uses.
The event's trading close and resolution timeline are listed on the event page (Closes: TBD). If a close time is not specified, markets usually stop trading before the exchange's defined measurement time on Mar 17 and resolve after the official yield is published per the exchange's settlement timetable.
Boundary and tie-breaking rules are defined in the market's resolution rules; common conventions specify inclusive/exclusive endpoints or rounding rules. Always consult the event's resolution language to see which bin claim applies to boundary values.
Monitor major releases such as monthly inflation reports (CPI/PCE), employment data, GDP or durable goods updates, any Fed statements/minutes or scheduled Fed meetings, and the Treasury auction calendar — any of these can materially change yield expectations in the run-up to Mar 17.
Auction sizes, demand at auctions, and announcements about issuance plans influence the supply/demand balance for the 10-year. Larger-than-expected issuance or weak auction demand can put upward pressure on yields, while strong demand or supportive market absorption can push yields lower; watch auction results and dealer participation reports near the date.