| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% to 4.12% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.34% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.28% to 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.19% to 4.21% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.04% to 4.06% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.07% to 4.09% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.95% to 3.97% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.13% to 4.15% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.16% to 4.18% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.98% to 4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.01% to 4.03% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.94% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.22% to 4.24% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.25% to 4.27% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.31% to 4.33% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. Treasury 10‑year yield will be on March 13, 2026, with traders buying outcomes that represent different yield ranges. It matters because the 10‑year is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, financial valuations, and macroeconomic expectations.
The 10‑year Treasury yield reflects market expectations for growth, inflation and central bank policy and moves when new economic data, Fed communications, or large issuance are priced in. Between now and March 13, 2026, evolving inflation prints, policy guidance, and supply/demand for Treasuries will shape yields; this market offers a way to trade those changing expectations. The market's 15 discrete outcomes create tradable buckets for possible yield levels on that specific date.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' views about which outcome will hold at settlement and update as new information arrives; interpret them as a live consensus signal rather than a certainty.
Settlement will reference a public data source and timestamp as specified in the market's settlement rules; consult the event page for the exact reference (platforms commonly use a U.S. Treasury or widely quoted market close yield) so the observed yield on March 13 is mapped to one of the 15 outcomes.
'Closes: TBD' means the platform has not yet announced the final trading cutoff for this market; trading remains open until the platform posts a closing time — watch the event page or platform notifications for the official cutoff.
The 15 outcomes partition the possible yield range on that date into discrete, tradable buckets so participants can express views on particular intervals rather than a continuous value; the event page shows how each bucket maps to yield ranges for settlement.
Total volume indicates how much capital has changed hands so far and gives a rough sense of liquidity and market interest for this March 13, 2026 market; low volume can mean prices are more sensitive to individual trades, while higher volume typically improves price reliability.
Key items to watch ahead of March 13 are Federal Reserve policy announcements and minutes, monthly inflation releases (CPI/PCE), major employment reports, and Treasury auction results — any surprises in those can shift yields and therefore change the relative attractiveness of different outcomes in this market.