| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.33% to 4.35% | 17% | 0¢ | 24¢ | — | $200 | Trade → |
| 4.15% to 4.17% | 0% | 4¢ | 93¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.97% to 3.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.96% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.3% to 4.32% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.12% to 4.14% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4% to 4.02% | 0% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.36% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.27% to 4.29% | 0% | 0¢ | 91¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.24% to 4.26% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.18% to 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 92¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.09% to 4.11% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.06% to 4.08% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.03% to 4.05% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.21% to 4.23% | 0% | 5¢ | 86¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will describe the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield on March 12, 2026, and matters because the 10-year is a key benchmark for borrowing costs, mortgages, and asset valuations.
The 10-year Treasury yield is set by trading in government debt and reflects expectations for inflation, growth, and central bank policy; it has historically moved with macro data, Fed actions, and global risk sentiment. Over multi-year cycles yields can trend with monetary policy regimes and fiscal issuance, but they can also spike or fall rapidly around data releases, policy meetings, or market stress.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about which discrete outcome will settle on the specified date; they update as new information arrives but do not guarantee a particular result.
The market will settle to the value of the 10-year Treasury yield as defined by the platform's settlement rules for that specific date and time; users should consult the event's rulebook or settlement specification for the precise reference source and timestamp.
The 15 outcomes are discrete bins that each correspond to a specific yield range on Mar 12, 2026; the outcome that contains the observed settlement yield will be the winning contract.
Trading will be allowed until the platform sets a closing time; the exact trading close and settlement schedule are determined by the platform and should be checked on the market page or rulebook for updates.
Key drivers include Fed meetings and statements, monthly inflation and payroll reports, major GDP or activity releases, and any unexpected geopolitical or financial stability events that alter risk premia or expectations for rates.
Primary influencers include the Federal Reserve (via policy and communication), primary dealers and other institutional bond traders, large asset managers and hedge funds, foreign official investors, and algorithmic/liquidity providers responding to news and order flow.