| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.93% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.15% to 4.17% | 0% | 1¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.12% to 4.14% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.18% to 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4% to 4.02% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.06% to 4.08% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.3% to 4.32% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.24% to 4.26% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.33% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.97% to 3.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.94% to 3.96% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.21% to 4.23% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.03% to 4.05% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.09% to 4.11% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.27% to 4.29% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which yield range the U.S. Treasury 10-year will trade at on March 11, 2026, a key benchmark because it influences mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and financial market valuations.
The 10-year Treasury yield reflects investor expectations for growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy; it moves as new macro data, central-bank communication, and supply/demand dynamics arrive. Markets use discrete outcome bands (this market has 15 outcomes) to let participants express views about where the yield will be on that specific date.
Prices or odds in this market summarize how traders collectively view the likelihood of each yield range on March 11, 2026 and will change as new information arrives; they are market-implied views, not guarantees of the future outcome.
Settlement will be based on the official yield value specified in the market's rules for the on‑the‑run U.S. Treasury 10‑year at the designated timestamp on March 11, 2026; the market operator will define the specific data source and time used for that value.
Each of the 15 outcomes corresponds to a predefined yield interval covering the possible range of the 10‑year yield on that date; the single outcome whose interval contains the official settlement yield will be the winning outcome.
Yes; rate decisions, minutes, economic projections, and public remarks by Fed officials in the days or weeks before March 11 often shift market expectations and therefore the prices of the outcome bands in this market.
It indicates no trades have yet executed on the platform for this market; low or zero volume means current prices (if any) may be thinly traded and more susceptible to change as new participants enter.
The listing shows 'Closes: TBD,' so the exact trading cutoff and settlement timestamp have not been announced; the platform will publish the closing/settlement schedule and the official data source to determine the yield before the market closes.