| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.36% or above | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $316 | Trade → |
| 4.33% to 4.35% | 8% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $17 | Trade → |
| 4.12% to 4.14% | 93% | 2¢ | 93¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| 4.24% to 4.26% | 0% | 0¢ | 35¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.21% to 4.23% | 0% | 0¢ | 92¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.18% to 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.15% to 4.17% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.06% to 4.08% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.09% to 4.11% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.03% to 4.05% | 0% | 0¢ | 98¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.97% to 3.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 40¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4% to 4.02% | 0% | 0¢ | 93¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.3% to 4.32% | 0% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3.96% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.27% to 4.29% | 0% | 0¢ | 20¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield will fall into on March 10, 2026; it matters because the 10-year yield is a benchmark for borrowing costs, fixed-income pricing, and financial market expectations.
The 10-year Treasury yield is driven by expectations for inflation, Federal Reserve policy, economic growth, and global capital flows; shifts in those forces over weeks and months can move yields materially. Historically, yields respond quickly to surprise macro data, central bank communication, and changes in Treasury supply or safe‑haven demand.
Prediction market prices aggregate participant expectations about the outcome on the settlement date; treat prices as a real‑time indicator of consensus sentiment that can change as new information arrives.
The market is resolved based on the published value specified in the event's official rules on KALSHI for the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield on March 10, 2026; outcomes represent discrete yield ranges defined on the event page, so check the event rules for the authoritative settlement source and method.
The event lists its close time as TBD; final trading close and settlement timing will be posted on the KALSHI event page and in the event rules — trading typically stops before the observation window used for settlement, so monitor the event page for updates.
This market offers 15 discrete outcomes, each corresponding to a predefined yield range for the 10-year on the settlement date; consult the event page to see the exact numeric bounds for each outcome before trading.
Key scheduled items include Federal Reserve meetings and minutes, monthly inflation releases (CPI, PCE), employment reports, GDP releases, and major Treasury auctions — any of these can shift expectations for the 10‑year yield ahead of the settlement date.
With total reported volume traded of $336, liquidity may be thin relative to larger markets, so prices can be more sensitive to individual trades; check order book depth, recent trade size, and be mindful that low volume can lead to wider price swings and greater execution impact.