| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.16% or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.17% to 4.19% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.2% to 4.22% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.23% to 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.26% to 4.28% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.29% to 4.31% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.32% to 4.34% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.35% to 4.37% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.38% to 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.41% to 4.43% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.44% to 4.46% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.47% to 4.49% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.5% to 4.52% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.53% to 4.55% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4.56% or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury note on April 1, 2026, serving as a barometer for long-term investor sentiment regarding economic growth and inflation. As a primary benchmark for global borrowing costs, this yield influences everything from mortgage rates to corporate debt valuations.
The 10-year Treasury yield is fundamentally driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate policy, fiscal deficits, and the broader macroeconomic outlook. Historical yields have fluctuated significantly based on global economic cycles, safe-haven demand during periods of uncertainty, and shifting perceptions of long-term price stability. Market participants analyze this specific date to gauge where the market expects interest rates to settle after the current policy cycle concludes.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of where the 10-year yield will land, reflecting the consensus of diverse market participants incorporating real-time macroeconomic data.
The outcome is determined by the closing yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for the date of April 1, 2026.
The date is significant as it provides a multi-year horizon, effectively filtering out short-term market noise to focus on long-term structural interest rate expectations.
In the event that the Treasury market is closed on the target date, the settlement value will be determined by the yield from the next available business day on which the market is operational.
No, while the Federal Reserve's rate decisions influence the outcome, this market tracks the market-determined yield of the 10-year note, which can diverge from central bank policy based on supply, demand, and growth expectations.
Yes, major economic events, such as recessions, fiscal policy shifts, or supply chain crises, can significantly alter market sentiment and the resulting yield leading up to the target date.