| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,925 to 6,949.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,150 to 7,174.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,125 to 7,149.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,075 to 7,099.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,050 to 7,074.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,025 to 7,049.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,950 to 6,974.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,850 to 6,874.9999 | 0% | 4¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,750 to 6,774.9999 | 0% | 4¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,700 to 6,724.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,575 to 6,599.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,875 to 6,899.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,200 to 7,224.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,100 to 7,124.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,024.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,900 to 6,924.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,800 to 6,824.9999 | 0% | 6¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,675 to 6,699.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,725 to 6,749.9999 | 0% | 2¢ | 16¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 0% | 5¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,175 to 7,199.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,775 to 6,799.9999 | 0% | 5¢ | 27¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,525 to 6,549.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,550 to 6,574.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,625 to 6,649.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,524.9999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,650 to 6,674.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,975 to 6,999.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 28¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,225 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,624.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete price range the S&P 500 will occupy at 4:00 PM EST on March 4, 2026; it matters for traders and hedgers who want to take positions tied to the index level at that exact settlement time.
The outcome will reflect the cumulative impact of macroeconomic releases, central bank communications, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments that occur between now and the settlement date. Markets in early March often reflect year‑to‑date trends plus any new information from Q1 earnings and policy guidance; the contract partitions the possible S&P levels into 30 non‑overlapping intervals for settlement.
Market prices on this contract represent collective market expectations about which interval will contain the S&P 500 at the specified time; they move as new information arrives and should be interpreted as relative market-implied valuations rather than exact forecasts.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific numeric interval for the S&P 500 level at 4:00 PM EST on Mar 4, 2026; the event page or contract terms list the precise lower and upper boundaries for all 30 intervals.
The contract's settlement rules specify the official data source and exact timestamp used (for example, an index publisher or consolidated tape at 4:00:00 PM ET); check the event's documentation on the platform for the definitive source and timestamp.
The trade cutoff is set by the market operator and is displayed on the event page; some markets close trading shortly before settlement to allow processing, so confirm the listed close time for this specific market.
The event's contingency and settlement rules cover disruptions—common protocols include using the last published official price, a delayed settlement window, or specific adjustment rules; consult the contract terms for the definitive handling procedure.
Review historical intraday high/low ranges for early March in recent years, intraday volatility indicators (e.g., VIX) around comparable dates, past market reactions to late‑February macro prints and Fed comments, and how overlapping earnings calendars have widened or narrowed ranges.