| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,700 to 6,724.9999 | 5% | 1¢ | 5¢ | — | $31 | Trade → |
| 6,875 to 6,899.9999 | 22% | 8¢ | 20¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| 6,900 to 6,924.9999 | 4% | 4¢ | 20¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,624.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,750 to 6,774.9999 | 0% | 2¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,775 to 6,799.9999 | 0% | 2¢ | 14¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,625 to 6,649.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,024.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,025 to 7,049.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,800 to 6,824.9999 | 0% | 5¢ | 17¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,725 to 6,749.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 8¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,975 to 6,999.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 0% | 8¢ | 18¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,524.9999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,050 to 7,074.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,525 to 6,549.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,675 to 6,699.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,925 to 6,949.9999 | 0% | 3¢ | 16¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,225 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,850 to 6,874.9999 | 0% | 6¢ | 22¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,125 to 7,149.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,550 to 6,574.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,150 to 7,174.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,175 to 7,199.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,075 to 7,099.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,575 to 6,599.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,650 to 6,674.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,100 to 7,124.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,200 to 7,224.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,950 to 6,974.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 14¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price range the S&P 500 will be in at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on Mar 3, 2026, and matters because it lets traders express views or hedge exposures tied to the market’s close at that specific timestamp.
The S&P 500 is a market-cap-weighted index of large U.S. stocks and is sensitive to macro data, monetary policy expectations, and earnings. This market on KALSHI offers 30 discrete outcome bins covering contiguous index ranges; the reported total volume traded ($38) indicates early/limited liquidity at the snapshot shown.
Market prices for each outcome reflect the collective buying and selling about which range will contain the index at settlement and will move as new information arrives; they are an expression of market beliefs and liquidity, not guaranteed forecasts.
Settlement is based on the S&P 500 level at 4:00 PM Eastern Time (U.S.) on Mar 3, 2026; consult the market rules on the platform for the precise timestamp definition and any references to exchange clocks.
Each of the 30 outcomes corresponds to a contiguous index interval (a price bin); the market page lists the exact numeric boundaries and an outcome pays if the official index level at the settlement time falls within that interval.
The platform’s market description and settlement rules name the reference source used for the official index level; check the event page or KALSHI’s settlement policy to see which index provider or market data feed is used.
Volume does not change the settlement index value; however, low trading volume indicates limited liquidity in the market, so quoted prices can move substantially on small orders and may reflect wider uncertainty until more participation arrives.
Yes—any adjustments to constituent weights, additions/removals, splits, or other corporate actions that are incorporated into the index calculation before the settlement timestamp will affect the reported S&P 500 level and therefore which outcome pays; index-provider rules determine how such actions are applied.