| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,475 to 6,499.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,850 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,450 to 6,474.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,400 to 6,424.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,425 to 6,449.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,325 to 6,349.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,624.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,550 to 6,574.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,575 to 6,599.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,525 to 6,549.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,650 to 6,674.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,149.9999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,200 to 6,224.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,150 to 6,174.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,175 to 6,199.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,775 to 6,799.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,300 to 6,324.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,275 to 6,299.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,375 to 6,399.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,500 to 6,524.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,350 to 6,374.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,625 to 6,649.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,675 to 6,699.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,725 to 6,749.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,225 to 6,249.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,750 to 6,774.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,700 to 6,724.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,250 to 6,274.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,800 to 6,824.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This contract asks which price range the S&P 500 index will fall into exactly at 4:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026. It matters because the index level at the close is a widely watched barometer of market sentiment and is used to settle many financial contracts.
The contract divides the possible S&P 500 closing values into 30 discrete outcomes; traders buy and sell shares in the outcome they think will be true at the specified timestamp. The S&P close at that moment will reflect cumulative effects of macro data, corporate news, central-bank communications and any market-moving events that occur before or during the trading day. Because markets evolve continuously, outcomes and market pricing will change up to the platform's stated close or last-trade time.
Market prices for each outcome represent the crowd’s consensus view of which price range will hold at the designated timestamp, and they update as new information arrives. Treat those prices as real-time signals of market expectations, not guarantees of the final result.
They are 30 mutually exclusive, contiguous intervals that partition the range of possible S&P 500 closing values at that timestamp; each outcome pays out if the official index value at 4:00 PM EDT falls inside that interval. The specific numeric boundaries are listed on the platform and determine which outcome is the winner on settlement.
Settlement is based on the official S&P 500 level published or supplied by the contract’s designated market data vendor at the exact 4:00 PM EDT timestamp; the platform’s rulebook defines the authoritative source and any tie-break or rounding procedures, so check the contract terms for the definitive settlement method.
'Closes: TBD' means the platform has not yet fixed the final trading cutoff for the contract; trading may be open before that cutoff and will cease at the announced close or at the platform’s last-trade time. Until the platform sets and publishes the close time, monitor the contract page for updates and be aware that liquidity and the ability to exit positions can change as the event approaches.
Intraday U.S. releases such as employment reports, inflation prints, retail sales or unexpectedly large corporate earnings and guidance issued before the close are most likely to move the S&P at 4:00 PM EDT. The impact depends on the timing relative to the close and the surprise magnitude versus market expectations.
Yes — end-of-quarter positioning, index rebalancings, and portfolio window-dressing can influence flows around late March, and options expirations or large institutional rebalancings can affect intraday volatility and closing-price dynamics. These structural factors can amplify the market’s response to news on the settlement day.