| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,975 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,875 to 6,899.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,650 to 6,674.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,625 to 6,649.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,624.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,575 to 6,599.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,550 to 6,574.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,475 to 6,499.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,375 to 6,399.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,800 to 6,824.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,274.9999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,675 to 6,699.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,300 to 6,324.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,350 to 6,374.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,400 to 6,424.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,425 to 6,449.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,450 to 6,474.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,500 to 6,524.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,525 to 6,549.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,725 to 6,749.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,750 to 6,774.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,775 to 6,799.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,850 to 6,874.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,900 to 6,924.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,925 to 6,949.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,950 to 6,974.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,275 to 6,299.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,325 to 6,349.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,700 to 6,724.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price range the S&P 500 index will be in exactly at 4:00pm EDT on March 17, 2026; it matters for short-term traders and anyone hedging or speculating around that daily closing snapshot.
Mid-March is often an active period for markets because it can overlap with corporate earnings, end-of-quarter positioning, and major economic data or central bank commentary. This specific Kalshi contract offers 30 mutually exclusive price-range outcomes that will resolve to the single range containing the official S&P 500 closing level at the specified snapshot.
Market odds reflect the aggregate trading interest in each discrete range and change as news and order flow arrive; treat them as a short-term, continuously updated consensus rather than an immutable forecast.
The contract uses the official S&P 500 index level at the market close time specified (4:00pm EDT) and resolves to the single predefined price range that contains that published closing level.
The event refers to the S&P 500 index level as defined in the contract text; always check the contract’s resolution rules for the exact index ticker and vendor used for settlement.
Trading close is determined by Kalshi (listed as TBD in the event metadata); settlement uses the official S&P 500 closing level at 4:00pm EDT on March 17, 2026 and will occur after the platform verifies the published value per its resolution policy.
Boundary resolution is governed by the contract’s published rules—check the event’s resolution policy for tie-breaking, rounding, or vendor-value conventions that determine which outcome wins when a value lies exactly on a range edge.
Look at recent intraday and close-to-close volatility, futures pricing leading up to the close, the economic and earnings calendar for mid-March 2026, and option-implied skew/liquidity to gauge potential moves; also account for current market liquidity of this contract (noting low traded volume can widen spreads and increase execution risk).