| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,675 to 6,699.9999 | 15% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $323 | Trade → |
| 6,775 to 6,799.9999 | 11% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $220 | Trade → |
| 6,700 to 6,724.9999 | 17% | 0¢ | 17¢ | — | $142 | Trade → |
| 6,650 to 6,674.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,800 to 6,824.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 31¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,175 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,474.9999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,150 to 7,174.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,125 to 7,149.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,100 to 7,124.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,075 to 7,099.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,025 to 7,049.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,050 to 7,074.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,024.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,475 to 6,499.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,975 to 6,999.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 17¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,950 to 6,974.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,925 to 6,949.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 31¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,900 to 6,924.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,875 to 6,899.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 28¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,850 to 6,874.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 17¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,750 to 6,774.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 31¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,725 to 6,749.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,625 to 6,649.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,624.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,575 to 6,599.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,525 to 6,549.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,550 to 6,574.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,500 to 6,524.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which of 30 predefined S&P 500 price ranges the index will occupy at the official close on Mar 13, 2026 at 4:00 pm EDT. It matters because the S&P close is widely used for portfolio valuations, derivatives settlement, and short-term trading decisions.
The S&P 500 is the primary U.S. large-cap benchmark; its close aggregates market sentiment at the end of the trading day. End-of-day levels often reflect intraday news flow, options/futures positioning, and institutional rebalancing. For this specific date, traders should check the economic calendar and corporate earnings schedules for that week.
Market odds in this context represent trader demand for each discrete closing-range outcome and serve as a real-time snapshot of collective expectations. Treat them as an indicator of market conviction that can change quickly as new information arrives.
The listing currently shows 'Closes: TBD'; check the Kalshi market page for the final exchange-set close time. Kalshi may set a trading cut-off before or at the event resolution and the outcome will resolve based on the published S&P 500 reference at 4:00 pm EDT per the platform's resolution rules.
The market will resolve using the official S&P 500 closing level as published by the designated data provider at 4:00:00 pm EDT on Mar 13, 2026; the market page or Kalshi's resolution policy will name the specific index/data source to be used.
Each outcome maps to a clearly specified, non-overlapping numeric range shown on the market page. Boundary inclusion/exclusion and tie-breaking rules are documented in the market's resolution details—if unclear, consult Kalshi's resolution rules or support for the authoritative procedure.
Yes; relatively low traded volume indicates limited liquidity, which can create wider spreads and make quoted market prices more sensitive to individual trades. That means the market price may reflect a smaller set of participants and can change quickly if larger orders enter.
Watch scheduled U.S. macro releases (major inflation, employment, and retail data), any Federal Reserve or major central bank communications, earnings from large S&P components in that reporting window, large corporate announcements, and sudden geopolitical developments; also monitor options/futures expirations and ETF flows that often affect end-of-day price action.