| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,825 to 6,849.9999 | 18% | 13¢ | 20¢ | — | $38 | Trade → |
| 6,750 to 6,774.9999 | 12% | 4¢ | 11¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| 6,775 to 6,799.9999 | 17% | 6¢ | 13¢ | — | $15 | Trade → |
| 6,800 to 6,824.9999 | 19% | 9¢ | 17¢ | — | $12 | Trade → |
| 7,075 to 7,099.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,875 to 6,899.9999 | 0% | 7¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,600 to 6,624.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,425 to 6,449.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,850 to 6,874.9999 | 0% | 12¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,925 to 6,949.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,450 to 6,474.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,424.9999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,475 to 6,499.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,100 to 7,124.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,125 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,575 to 6,599.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,725 to 6,749.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,675 to 6,699.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 8¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,050 to 7,074.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,500 to 6,524.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,025 to 7,049.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,975 to 6,999.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,700 to 6,724.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 9¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,950 to 6,974.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,650 to 6,674.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 to 7,024.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,900 to 6,924.9999 | 0% | 1¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,550 to 6,574.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,625 to 6,649.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,525 to 6,549.9999 | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which S&P 500 price range will contain the official index level at 4:00pm EDT on March 11, 2026; it matters because that snapshot is used by traders and risk managers to assess market direction and intraday volatility.
The S&P 500 is the broad large-cap U.S. equity benchmark and single-day closing snapshots reflect the cumulative effect of macro data, earnings, policy and geopolitical developments. Markets in early 2026 are shaped by central bank messaging, growth and inflation dynamics, sectoral earnings, and liquidity conditions, all of which influence where the index trades at a specific timestamp.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations about which discrete price range will contain the 4:00pm EDT index level; they update as new information arrives and should be read as a summary of collective market beliefs rather than a prediction guarantee.
It measures the official S&P 500 index level at 4:00pm EDT on March 11, 2026; the market is partitioned into 30 contiguous, non-overlapping price ranges and the single outcome covering the official 4:00pm level will resolve true.
The market resolves using the official S&P 500 index price at 4:00pm EDT on Mar 11, 2026 as reported by the platform's designated market-data vendor; the event page and platform rules list the exact source and any tie-breaking procedures.
If there is no definitive official print at 4:00pm EDT, the platform's resolution policy applies—commonly a nearest consolidated last-sale, closing auction price, or other specified fallback—so consult the market's rules for the exact fallback procedure.
Breaking news, scheduled economic releases, or large corporate announcements before 4:00pm EDT can shift order flow and volatility, moving the index across ranges and thereby changing which discrete outcome contains the final 4:00pm level.
Participants include retail traders, professional speculators, institutional portfolio managers and market makers; their aggregated trading, hedging (especially around options), and rebalancing flows create the price movements that determine which range resolves.