| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,850 or above | 72% | 21¢ | 59¢ | — | $251 | Trade → |
| 6,875 or above | 40% | 30¢ | 41¢ | — | $103 | Trade → |
| 6,625 or above | 99% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $20 | Trade → |
| 6,775 or above | 92% | 23¢ | 100¢ | — | $15 | Trade → |
| 6,100 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,175 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,800 or above | 0% | 22¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,325 or above | 0% | 1¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,375 or above | 0% | 1¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,200 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,150 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,200 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,250 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,300 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,350 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,125 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,400 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,250 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,350 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,450 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,225 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,275 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,425 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,400 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,475 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,525 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,050 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,825 or above | 0% | 71¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,275 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,425 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,075 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,075 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 89¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,125 or above | 0% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,450 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,050 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 79¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,650 or above | 0% | 11¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,900 or above | 0% | 17¢ | 51¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,925 or above | 0% | 10¢ | 31¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,100 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,600 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,525 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,500 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,500 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,475 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,725 or above | 0% | 23¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,175 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,375 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,975 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 79¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,325 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,300 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,225 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,150 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,575 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,675 or above | 0% | 23¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,025 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 79¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,700 or above | 0% | 23¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,950 or above | 0% | 1¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,550 or above | 0% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,750 or above | 0% | 23¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the S&P 500 index level will be exactly at 4:00 pm EST on March 5, 2026. It matters because the index close is a widely used benchmark for portfolio performance, option settlement, and end-of-day risk positions.
The S&P 500 is a market-cap-weighted index representing large U.S. companies; its closing level aggregates thousands of intra-day price moves into a single benchmark. Outcomes for a single-day close like this reflect the interaction of macro releases, corporate news, liquidity flows, and trader positioning leading up to the official close.
Market prices on this platform reflect traders' collective view about which listed outcome will match the official close; they change as new information arrives and are not fixed forecasts. Use them as a real-time signal about market expectations, not as guaranteed predictions.
The contract will be resolved to the official S&P 500 closing value at 4:00 pm ET on March 5, 2026 as reported by the market-data source specified in the market's rules; check the market page for the named vendor and resolution policy.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific price level or price interval listed on the market page; the winning outcome is the one that contains the reported official close. Review the outcome labels on the event page to see whether they are exact index levels or ranges.
The market's trading-close time is listed on the event page and is currently marked TBD; platforms commonly close trading at or shortly before the official resolution time to manage settlement risks, so check the event page for any updates.
Scheduled U.S. economic releases on that date (for example, employment or inflation prints), major S&P constituent earnings or guidance issued that day, and any central bank communications are the types of scheduled items most likely to move the close—especially if they arrive near market end.
Large ETF creation/redemption activity and options-related hedging can concentrate buy or sell pressure around the close; index rebalances and options expiries can lead to predictable transactional flows that affect order imbalance and volatility near 4pm, so monitor the expiry/rebalance calendar and intraday flow reports.